Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Francis Tiafoe		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	5	1.17	Watch
	5	1.18	Watch
	4.32	1.22	Watch
	5	1.17	Watch
	4.98	1.18	Watch
	5	1.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↑ (3.74)	1.18 ↓ (1.28)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
19.5%

Alex De Minaur
80.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

74.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francis Tiafoe's form might have worsened.

Alex De Minaur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alex De Minaur's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 57.1%). De Minaur (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Sets - Tiafoe (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -5.5 Games - De Minaur (1.68) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 37.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alex De Minaur will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 6 - 46.2%). De Minaur (votes: 7 - 53.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 34. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 6.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, De Minaur is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.2:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Alex De Minaur - the odds 1.28 are the expected chance of winning is 74.54%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Francisco Comesana	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jason Kubler	3:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
07.12.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Hamad Medjedovic - Alex De Minaur	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
18.01.26	Matteo Berrettini - Alex De Minaur	Canceled ✺
ATP United Cup
09.01.26	Alex De Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Alex De Minaur - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WW?WW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Toronto
03.08.25	Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Paris
03.11.22	Alex De Minaur - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Next Gen Finals
08.11.19	Alex De Minaur - Francis Tiafoe	3:1
ATP US Open
30.08.18	Alex De Minaur - Francis Tiafoe	3:1
ATP Brisbane
01.01.17	Alex De Minaur - Francis Tiafoe	2:1

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