Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Aix en Provence, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday


	Ignacio Buse		Alejandro Tabilo

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
			Watch
	2.13	1.64	Watch
	2.34	1.7
	2.17	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.15	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.41)	1.65 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ignacio Buse
43%

Alejandro Tabilo
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

67.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Alejandro Tabilo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ignacio Buse that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alejandro Tabilo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	0%	92.3%

Ignacio Buse - Alejandro Tabilo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Tabilo (2.55) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alejandro Tabilo will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tabilo (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Buse is ranked ATP: 58. Tabilo is ranked ATP: 43.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tabilo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tabilo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Buse won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Ignacio Buse - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.36%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.64%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ignacio Buse
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Thomas Faurel	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Arthur Fils - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Corentin Moutet	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWL
- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Challenger
30.04.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
22.04.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
14.04.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:0
Davis Cup World Group
04.02.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:1
ATP Challenger
22.11.23	Alejandro Tabilo - Ignacio Buse	2:0

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