Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: French Open, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Roland-Garros (Paris)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Hubert Hurkacz		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.67	2.22
	1.68	2.41
	1.65	2.24	Watch
	1.67	2.2
	1.68	2.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)	2.27 ↑ (2.22)

The best margin for this event is 1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
57.6%

Francis Tiafoe
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	0%	31.8%

Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 99. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 22.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hurkacz won 4.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Tiafoe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hurkacz could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hurkacz won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Jaume Munar - Hubert Hurkacz	1:3 ✺
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Yannick Hanfmann	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
02.05.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Roman Andres Burruchaga	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Matteo Berrettini - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLLWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Eliot Spizzirri - Francis Tiafoe	1:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Diego Dedura-Palomero - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
11.05.26	Francis Tiafoe - Andrea Pellegrino	0:2 ✺
09.05.26	Francis Tiafoe - Ignacio Buse	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Cincinnati
17.08.24	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	Hurkacz H. retired
ATP Laver Cup
23.09.23	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP Vienna
25.10.22	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	2:1
ATP Indian Wells
11.10.21	Francis Tiafoe - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.19	Francis Tiafoe - Hubert Hurkacz	1:2
ATP Next Gen Finals
06.11.18	Francis Tiafoe - Hubert Hurkacz	3:1
ATP Washington
01.08.18	Hubert Hurkacz - Francis Tiafoe	0:2

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