Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cap Cana, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	Hubert Hurkacz		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	1.53	2.38	Watch
			Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.59	2.48
	1.51	2.43	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.51	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.33)	2.4 ↓ (3.05)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hubert Hurkacz
61%

Mattia Bellucci
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hubert Hurkacz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hubert Hurkacz's form might have worsened.

Mattia Bellucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mattia Bellucci's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hubert Hurkacz than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hubert Hurkacz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mattia Bellucci, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Hubert Hurkacz - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Hurkacz will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Bellucci will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hurkacz: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Games - Bellucci (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hubert Hurkacz will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Hurkacz (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Bellucci (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hurkacz is ranked ATP: 71. Bellucci is ranked ATP: 94.

Hurkacz is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bellucci has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bellucci may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hurkacz is a strong favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Aleksandar Kovacevic	0:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
24.02.26	Jakub Mensik - Hubert Hurkacz	2:0 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
11.02.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Alexander Bublik	1:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
03.02.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Ethan Quinn	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Gabriel Diallo	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
26.02.26	Francis Tiafoe - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Rinky Hijikata - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLLWW

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