Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday


	Lorenzo Musetti		Gabriel Diallo

	1	2
	1.2	4.5	Watch
	1.25	3.9	Watch
	1.21	4.5	Watch
	1.23	4.71
	1.24	4.11	Watch
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.24	4.43	Watch
	1.21	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.27)	4.33 ↑ (3.74)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
77.9%

Gabriel Diallo
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.7%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Gabriel Diallo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Lorenzo Musetti - Gabriel Diallo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Musetti (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Musetti will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 11. Diallo is ranked ATP: 78.

Musetti is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Diallo in the last match got series victories and it is in very good shape (in the last 5 games, wins - 5).

Diallo could have physical problems compared to their opponent - in recent days, they have played more matches than their opponents.

In this match, Musetti is a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 1 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 matches, and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Alex De Minaur - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
26.04.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Jaume Munar	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWW?L
- Gabriel Diallo
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Grigor Dimitrov - Gabriel Diallo	1:2 ✺
29.04.25	Cameron Norrie - Gabriel Diallo	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Gabriel Diallo - Kamil Majchrzak	2:1 ✺
25.04.25	Gabriel Diallo - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Canceled
24.04.25	Zizou Bergs - Gabriel Diallo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Hong Kong
02.01.25	Gabriel Diallo - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.23	Gabriel Diallo - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

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