Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Paris - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday


	Jacob Fearnley		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.05	Watch
	1.88	1.87	Watch
			Watch
	1.74	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.88)	2.04 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
54.1%

Matteo Arnaldi
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jacob Fearnley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Arnaldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Jacob Fearnley - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Fearnley (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jacob Fearnley will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fearnley (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 81. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 72.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Fearnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Jacob Fearnley - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.87%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Vienna
21.10.25	Jacob Fearnley - Alexander Zverev	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Hamad Medjedovic - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Jacob Fearnley	0:2 ✺
ATP Stockholm
16.10.25	Jacob Fearnley - Elias Ymer	0:2 ✺
13.10.25	Tallon Griekspoor - Jacob Fearnley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Vienna
23.10.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
20.10.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Jesper De Jong - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Brussels
15.10.25	Yannick Hanfmann - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWWL

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