Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Vienna, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday


	Aleksandar Kovacevic		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.5	1.57
	2.34	1.60	Watch
	2.41	1.57	Watch
	2.66	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.16)	1.54 ↓ (1.7)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aleksandar Kovacevic
38.3%

Matteo Arnaldi
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

56.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aleksandar Kovacevic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aleksandar Kovacevic's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aleksandar Kovacevic than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aleksandar Kovacevic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Aleksandar Kovacevic - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Kovacevic (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Kovacevic (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Arnaldi (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kovacevic is ranked ATP: 69. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 74.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Arnaldi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Arnaldi might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kovacevic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Aleksandar Kovacevic - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 44.04%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aleksandar Kovacevic
ATP Vienna
19.10.25	Mackenzie McDonald - Aleksandar Kovacevic	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Lukas Neumayer - Aleksandar Kovacevic	1:2 ✺
ATP Stockholm
16.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0 ✺
15.10.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	Ugo Carabelli C. retired ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Juncheng Shang	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWL?L
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Vienna
19.10.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Jesper De Jong - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
ATP Brussels
15.10.25	Yannick Hanfmann - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Shanghai
04.10.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
02.10.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:1
ATP Toronto
05.08.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:0

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