Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Vienna - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Vienna 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Jacob Fearnley		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
			Watch
	1.55	2.35
	1.57	2.33
	1.52	2.46	Watch
	1.54	2.50
	1.52	2.54	Watch
	1.53	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.59)	2.43 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jacob Fearnley
61.3%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
38.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.8%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jacob Fearnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jacob Fearnley than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Jacob Fearnley - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fearnley is ranked ATP: 87., and Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 74..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Carreno Busta could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Fearnley holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Jacob Fearnley - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 58.81%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Pablo Carreno-Busta - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.19%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Brussels
21.10.26	Clement Chidekh - Jacob Fearnley	2:0 ✺
20.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
18.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Damir Dzumhur	0:2 ✺
17.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
16.10.26	Jacob Fearnley - Maxim Mrva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWLWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Shanghai
12.10.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Felix Aliassime-Auger	1:2 ✺
10.10.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
08.10.26	Mariano Navone - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
02.10.26	Daniil Medvedev - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
29.09.26	Adrian Mannarino - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jacob Fearnley
ATP Vienna
25.10.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Jacob Fearnley	✺

Jacob Fearnley - Pablo Carreno-Busta: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide