Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 August 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Austria	Laola1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Germany	Laola1, Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis, Sky Sports UHD, Sky Sports+


	Rafael Jodar		Arthur Fils

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.25
	1.7	2.15	Watch
	1.69	2.31
	1.66	2.28
	1.66	2.25	Watch
	1.68	2.22	Watch
	1.7	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.92)	2.23 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
57%

Arthur Fils
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rafael Jodar's performance.

Arthur Fils has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arthur Fils might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rafael Jodar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arthur Fils than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arthur Fils could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils Predictions

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rafael Jodar will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rain delay.

Jodar is ranked ATP: 15. Fils is ranked ATP: 24.

Jodar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fils has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fils may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Jodar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Arthur Fils - the odds 1.9 are the expected chance of winning is 50.22%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Montreal
08.08.26	Jiri Lehecka - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
06.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Corentin Moutet	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
03.08.26	Taylor Harry Fritz - Rafael Jodar	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Rafael Jodar - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLW
- Arthur Fils
ATP Montreal
08.08.26	Arthur Fils - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
06.08.26	Mariano Navone - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
05.08.26	Zachary Svajda - Arthur Fils	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
28.07.26	Arthur Fils - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Matteo Berrettini - Arthur Fils	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Washington
28.07.26	Arthur Fils - Rafael Jodar	0:2
ATP Barcelona
18.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils	1:2

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