Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Seoul, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday


	Rio Noguchi		Sho Shimabukuro

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.42	Watch
	3.00	1.35	Watch
	2.62	1.43	Watch
	2.63	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.19)	1.41 ↓ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
34%

Sho Shimabukuro
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

57.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Noguchi's form might have worsened.

Sho Shimabukuro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sho Shimabukuro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Noguchi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sho Shimabukuro than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sho Shimabukuro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Rio Noguchi - Sho Shimabukuro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 252. Shimabukuro is ranked ATP: 193.

Noguchi has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Shimabukuro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Noguchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Shimabukuro might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Noguchi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Sho Shimabukuro - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.56%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
27.10.25	James Duckworth - Rio Noguchi	1:2 ✺
15.10.25	Rio Noguchi - Kaichi Uchida	1:2 ✺
06.10.25	Rio Noguchi - Sergey Fomin	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	Yoshihito Nishioka - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
21.09.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLLL
- Sho Shimabukuro
ATP Challenger
27.10.25	Omar Jasika - Sho Shimabukuro	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Ilia Simakin - Sho Shimabukuro	Shimabukuro S. retired ✺
18.10.25	Kyrian Jacquet - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
17.10.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
16.10.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Sergey Fomin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 W?LWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.07.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Rio Noguchi	2:1
22.04.25	Rio Noguchi - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0
ITF Tournaments
03.02.21	Sho Shimabukuro - Rio Noguchi	0:2

Rio Noguchi - Sho Shimabukuro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide