Match Info
AFL - Round 17Date: 4 July 2025, FridayLocation: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL, Fox Footy |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 5 |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1 |
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Essendon Bombers |
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Gold Coast Suns |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
3.5 |
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1.33 |
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 |
3.06 |
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1.32 |
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 |
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 Watch |
 |
3.25 |
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1.33 |
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 |
2.99 |
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1.37 |
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 |
3.44 |
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1.26 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.25 ↓
(3.37) |
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1.32
(1.32) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 169.00
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-20)
- The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Essendon Bombers
28.9% | Gold Coast Suns
71.1% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Essendon Bombers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Essendon Bombers than the current prediction. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (-0.8%)Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns Predictions
Users Predictions:
1 users predict this event. Essendon will win (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 75:95 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (18 - 19)
- 09:22, Hobbs B. (G),
- 10:51, Humphrey B. (G),
- 12:51, Read E. (G),
- 19:48, (Behind Rushed),
- 27:47, Caddy N. (G),
- 30:58, Clarke A. (G),
- 32:39, Read E. (G),
- 2nd Quarter (23 - 26)
- 01:40, Jeffrey J. (G),
- 02:57, (Behind Rushed),
- 04:02, Clarke A. (Behind),
- 05:43, (Behind Rushed),
- 07:39, Wright P. (Behind),
- 09:39, King B. (G),
- 11:59, Caddy N. (G),
- 14:04, Read E. (G),
- 18:07, Duursma X. (Behind),
- 22:34, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
- 22:59, Clohesy S. (Behind),
- 24:03, Wright P. (G),
- 28:14, Caddy N. (G),
- 30:05, King B. (G),
- 3rd Quarter (32 - 31)
- 01:38, Budarick C. (G),
- 03:09, Caddy N. (Behind),
- 03:40, Kako I. (G),
- 07:29, Moyle N. (G),
- 09:04, Anderson N. (G),
- 11:18, May A. (G),
- 13:24, May A. (G),
- 15:09, Walter J. (Behind),
- 16:09, May A. (G),
- 26:42, Walter J. (G),
- 29:49, Caldwell J. (G),
- 31:09, (Behind Rushed),
- 32:12, King B. (G),
- 4th Quarter (1 - 39)
- 01:23, Miller T. (G),
- 02:58, Ainsworth B. (G),
- 08:48, Humphrey B. (Behind),
- 11:26, King B. (G),
- 15:24, (Behind Rushed),
- 20:34, Humphrey B. (G),
- 22:59, Anderson N. (G),
- 24:05, Merrett Z. (Behind),
- 27:04, Fiorini B. (G),
- 30:55, Moyle N. (Behind),
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 9).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 3.Essendon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).Gold Coast's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Essendon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Gold Coast is considered a favorite. We predict that Gold Coast will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1368:1147. (average 80.5:67.5).Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 595:452. (average 99.2:75.3).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 10.08.24 | Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns | 86:87 | | 02.06.24 | Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers | 91:80 | | 26.03.23 | Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns | 108:80 | | 17.07.22 | Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns | 103:55 | | 15.08.21 | Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers | 30:98 | | 12.08.20 | Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers | 73:73 | | 28.07.19 | Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers | 96:106 |
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