Match Info

AFL - Round 24

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	St Kilda Saints		Gold Coast Suns

	1	X	2
	1.4		3
	1.40	100.00	2.70
				Watch
	1.43		2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.65)	33.33	2.83 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 178.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St Kilda Saints
64.9%

Draw
2.7%

Gold Coast Suns
32.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Kilda Saints has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St Kilda Saints's performance.

Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gold Coast Suns might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St Kilda Saints that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gold Coast Suns could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. St Kilda will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Gold Coast will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 97:81

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (31 - 46)
02:36, (Behind Rushed),
06:34, Hall M. (G),
07:53, King B. (G),
11:32, Ryan L. (G),
13:16, Read E. (Behind),
14:14, Long B. (Behind),
15:11, Miller T. (Behind),
16:23, Lombard L. (G),
18:45, Anderson N. (G),
21:07, Byrnes R. (G),
22:46, Lombard L. (G),
25:15, King B. (G),
26:18, Rowell M. (Behind),
27:56, Garcia H. (G),
29:00, Gulbin L. (G),
31:05, Marshall R. (G),
34:07, Holman N. (G),
2nd Quarter (22 - 22)
00:43, Humphrey B. (Behind),
05:42, Byrnes R. (G),
07:41, Hall M. (Behind),
08:38, Owens M. (G),
10:27, Lombard L. (G),
12:11, Boxshall H. (G),
16:20, Miller T. (G),
17:48, Ryan L. (Behind),
20:54, (Behind Rushed),
21:46, Jepson B. (Behind),
22:29, Boxshall H. (Behind),
26:04, (Behind Rushed),
28:29, Walter J. (G),
30:18, King B. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (7 - 20)
02:28, Anderson N. (Behind),
06:17, Noble J. (Behind),
08:14, Long B. (Behind),
11:32, (Behind Rushed),
13:15, Howard D. (Behind),
15:18, Walter J. (G),
17:04, Holman N. (G),
18:46, Read E. (Behind),
19:07, King B. (Behind),
21:33, Read E. (Behind),
23:21, Boxshall H. (G),
25:07, (Behind Rushed),
4th Quarter (20 - 15)
00:56, Sharman C. (Behind),
02:00, Owens M. (G),
08:49, (Behind Rushed),
11:06, Ryan L. (G),
14:54, Lombard L. (Behind),
17:17, Butler D. (Behind),
19:07, King B. (G),
21:18, Boxshall H. (G),
23:11, (Behind Rushed),
25:56, Long B. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 2.

Recent performances by St Kilda have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gold Coast is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

St Kilda will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St Kilda won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1429:1439. (average 71.5:72).

Including home matches between the teams, St Kilda won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 704:600. (average 78.2:66.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Kilda Saints
AFL
14.08.26	Richmond Tigers - St Kilda Saints	45:94 ✺
09.08.26	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	62:106 ✺
31.07.26	St Kilda Saints - Sydney Swans	88:107 ✺
26.07.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - St Kilda Saints	62:93 ✺
16.07.26	Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints	102:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLWL
- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
15.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	95:53 ✺
08.08.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Gold Coast Suns	77:79 ✺
02.08.26	Gold Coast Suns - Melbourne Demons	105:114 ✺
24.07.26	Carlton Blues - Gold Coast Suns	110:97 ✺
19.07.26	Gold Coast Suns - Western Bulldogs	68:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
09.05.26	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	89:60
25.05.25	St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns	61:80
08.06.24	St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns	51:48
15.07.23	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	77:51
08.04.23	St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns	113:60
15.04.22	St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns	87:61
07.05.21	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	54:63

St Kilda Saints - Gold Coast Suns: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide