Match Info

AFL - Play Offs - Final

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Optus Stadium (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1


	Fremantle Dockers		Brisbane Lions

	1	X	2
	2.25		1.65
	2.20	75.00	1.62
				Watch
	2.14		1.65
	2.25		1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.2)	18.75 ↓ (100)	1.64 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 183.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-37)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fremantle Dockers
40.6%

Draw
4.8%

Brisbane Lions
54.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.7%

0.9%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

0.6%

83.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fremantle Dockers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Brisbane Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fremantle Dockers than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fremantle Dockers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (+29.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fremantle (votes: 1 - 50%). Brisbane (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Brisbane (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Brisbane Lions will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fremantle (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Brisbane (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 111:74

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (22 - 23)
02:43, Voss P. (Behind),
03:11, Cameron C. (G),
04:46, Treacy J. (G),
09:50, Rayner C. (Behind),
11:12, McKenna C. (Behind),
11:43, (Behind Rushed),
15:24, (Behind Rushed),
15:58, Dudley I. (Behind),
18:28, Dudley I. (G),
22:20, Allen O. (G),
23:26, Allen O. (Behind),
24:17, Mcdonald O. (Behind),
25:32, Lohmann K. (G),
26:40, Hipwood E. (Behind),
27:50, Reid M. (G),
2nd Quarter (21 - 20)
01:06, Voss P. (G),
03:20, McKenna C. (G),
05:10, Amiss J. (G),
06:28, Bolton S. (Behind),
08:14, Ashcroft L. (G),
11:59, Voss P. (Behind),
14:10, Voss P. (G),
17:06, Hipwood E. (Behind),
18:15, Draper S. (G),
20:10, Neale L. (Behind),
27:14, Worner K. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (29 - 19)
01:09, Treacy J. (Behind),
04:05, Amiss J. (G),
06:28, (Behind Rushed),
08:06, (Behind Rushed),
12:14, Dudley I. (G),
16:21, Lohmann K. (G),
17:31, Frederick M. (Behind),
19:31, Allen O. (G),
21:21, Johnson M. (Behind),
22:38, Cameron C. (G),
23:41, Young H. (G),
28:47, Morris L. (Behind),
30:13, Young H. (G),
4th Quarter (17 - 34)
02:12, (Behind Rushed),
04:47, McCluggage H. (Behind),
06:52, McKenna C. (Behind),
07:35, Morris L. (G),
08:54, Bolton S. (Behind),
10:26, McKenna C. (Behind),
11:29, Rayner C. (Behind),
14:24, Young H. (Behind),
16:27, Frederick M. (G),
19:21, Treacy J. (Behind),
20:48, Johnson M. (Behind),
21:49, Voss P. (G),
23:10, Cameron C. (G),
24:29, Bailey Z. (G),
27:59, Morris L. (G),
30:02, Morris L. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fremantle won 2.

In recent outings, Fremantle has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Brisbane shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Brisbane may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Brisbane is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Brisbane in today's match, at odds of 1.64.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Fremantle has recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1403:1360 (averaging 77.9:75.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fremantle against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 776:758 goals (averaging 70.5:68.9 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fremantle Dockers
AFL
18.09.26	Sydney Swans - Fremantle Dockers	71:83 ✺
11.09.26	Fremantle Dockers - Geelong Cats	120:106 ✺
03.09.26	Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks	40:72 ✺
21.08.26	Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers	119:82 ✺
14.08.26	Fremantle Dockers - Adelaide Crows	112:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLLW
- Brisbane Lions
AFL
19.09.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Brisbane Lions	122:131 ✺
12.09.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	144:91 ✺
05.09.26	Sydney Swans - Brisbane Lions	141:88 ✺
21.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Brisbane Lions	96:159 ✺
15.08.26	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	95:53 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
30.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Fremantle Dockers	78:103
15.08.25	Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions	44:101
17.03.24	Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions	93:70
06.08.23	Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions	74:77
28.04.23	Brisbane Lions - Fremantle Dockers	115:67
05.06.22	Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions	99:85
08.08.21	Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions	54:118

Fremantle Dockers - Brisbane Lions: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide