Match Info
AFL - Wild Card - FinalDate: 29 August 2026, SaturdayLocation: Melbourne Cricket Ground (Melbourne)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | AFL TV, Fox Footy |
 United-kingdom | HBO Max, TNT Sports 8 |
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Melbourne Demons |
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Carlton Blues |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.91 |
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1.91 |
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1.90 |
75.00 |
1.85 |
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 Watch |
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1.9 |
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1.87 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.9 ↓
(2.05) |
25 ↓
(75) |
1.88 ↑
(1.72) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 170.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)
- The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Melbourne Demons
47.8% | Draw
3.6% | Carlton Blues
48.5% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlton Blues might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-12.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Demons that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+20.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlton Blues could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Melbourne Demons - Carlton Blues Predictions
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Melbourne will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Carlton will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +18.5 Points, OT - Carlton (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne (votes: 1 - 50%). Carlton (votes: 1 - 50%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:87 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Quarter (27 - 9)
- 04:09, Sharp H. (G),
- 05:14, Acres B. (Behind),
- 07:39, Pittonet M. (Behind),
- 08:07, Langford H. (G),
- 12:28, Laurie B. (G),
- 16:53, Cottrell M. (Behind),
- 22:03, Gawn M. (G),
- 24:03, McKay H. (G),
- 26:35, Pickett K. (Behind),
- 27:43, Melksham J. (Behind),
- 28:19, Steele J. (Behind),
- 2nd Quarter (9 - 26)
- 03:02, Ainsworth B. (G),
- 04:50, Pickett K. (Behind),
- 09:37, Cripps P. (G),
- 13:06, Chandler K. (Behind),
- 16:36, Melksham J. (Behind),
- 18:11, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
- 22:57, Hollands O. (G),
- 24:38, Cottrell M. (Behind),
- 26:43, Kemp B. (G),
- 28:17, McDonald T. (G),
- 3rd Quarter (16 - 21)
- 02:03, Petty H. (G),
- 03:16, McKay H. (G),
- 04:50, Fritsch B. (G),
- 06:48, Laurie B. (Behind),
- 08:23, Acres B. (Behind),
- 11:01, Evans F. (Behind),
- 14:02, (Behind Rushed),
- 17:01, Ainsworth B. (G),
- 21:11, Cottrell M. (Behind),
- 23:14, Bowey J. (Behind),
- 26:24, (Behind Rushed),
- 28:36, Ainsworth B. (G),
- 4th Quarter (3 - 18)
- 01:10, (Behind Rushed),
- 01:48, Smith J. (G),
- 05:22, McKay H. (Behind),
- 09:13, Melksham J. (Behind),
- 10:54, Pickett K. (Behind),
- 11:54, Smith J. (Behind),
- 17:47, Kemp B. (Behind),
- 19:11, Kemp B. (Behind),
- 21:44, Cottrell M. (Behind),
- 24:23, Smith J. (G),
- 27:21, Acres B. (Behind),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 2.Melbourne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).Carlton is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins). In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win. We predict that Carlton will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1665:1458. (average 83.3:72.9).Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 507:385. (average 84.5:64.2).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| AFL | | | 29.03.26 | Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons | 77:100 | | 19.07.25 | Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons | 78:70 | | 09.05.24 | Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons | 77:76 | | AAMI Community Series | | | 28.02.24 | Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons | 63:101 | | AFL | | | 15.09.23 | Melbourne Demons - Carlton Blues | 71:73 | | 12.08.23 | Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons | 60:56 | | 02.06.23 | Melbourne Demons - Carlton Blues | 61:44 |
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