Match Info

VHL

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Chelny

	1	X	2
	1.31	5.48	7.04
	1.3	6.1	7.5	Watch
	1.26	5.8	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.35)	5.79 ↑ (5.25)	7.38 ↑ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
71.6%

Draw
15.9%

Chelny
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

17.5%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

17%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Chelny has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelny than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Gornyak UGMK - Chelny Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
93. Romashkin P. (G)	1. Ustimenko K. (G)
72. Trofimov Y.	72. Kolmagorov K.
85. Zhuravlyov Y.	62. Naumov G.
29. Khremkin K.	78. Balashov M.
10. Filyayev V.	68. Silayev I. (C)
32. Borisov S.	89. Migur A.
Line 2
23. Gamzakov M.	45. Alyayev A. (A)
92. Valitov D.	33. Dergousov D.
7. Gordin A. (A)	10. Ustimkin M.
13. Zaytsev O. (C)	94. Sherstobitov D.
80. Demidovich V.	96. Lomako O. (A)
Line 3
3. Zubarev A.	19. Zakharov N.
90. Nekrasov N. (A)	58. Muzhikov D.
79. Tarasov M.	9. Nasyrov M.
14. Makhrin M.	25. Rakhcheev I.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	11. Luchenkov S.
Line 4
4. Bolshakov M.	50. Motygullin B.
16. Myslyayev S.	23. Zaripov A.
59. Razdyakonov V.	21. Fedyakin S.
18. Sushchev V.	88. Arefyev Y.
71. Velikov M.
Substitutes
30. Novosyolov N. (G)	31. Noskov A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 0)
00:53, 1 - 0, Khremkin K. (G), Valitov D. (A), Zaytsev O. (A2)
06:12, 2 - 0, Demidovich V. (G), Gordin A. (A), Zhuravlyov Y. (A2)
10:28, 3 - 0, Demidovich V. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
03:54, 4 - 0, Razdyakonov V. (G), Velikov M. (A), Sushchev V. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
13:10, 5 - 0, Tarasov M. (G), Makhrin M. (A), Lukhovskoy N. (A2)

Preview

Recent performances by Gornyak-UGMK have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chelny is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chelny may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gornyak-UGMK is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 2.8:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
01.10.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Bars Kazan	0:1 ✺
29.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - CSK VVS Samara	4:3 penalties ✺
24.09.25	Kristall Saratov - Gornyak-UGMK	2:6 ✺
22.09.25	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWWLL
- HC Chelny
VHL
01.10.25	Chelmet - Chelny	6:2 ✺
29.09.25	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Chelny	2:3 OT ✺
27.09.25	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Chelny	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Chelny - Torpedo-Gorky	2:3 penalties ✺
19.09.25	Chelny - Khimik	3:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
11.12.24	Chelny - Gornyak-UGMK	2:5
01.12.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelny	2:3 penalties
18.02.24	Chelny - Gornyak-UGMK	5:1
10.09.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelny	3:1

Gornyak-UGMK - Chelny: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide