Match Info

VHL

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ledovaya Arena A. Kozitsyna (Verkhnyaya Pyshma)


	Gornyak-UGMK		Dizel Penza

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.64	2.65
	2.33	3.85	2.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.34)	3.75 ↓ (3.8)	2.64 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gornyak-UGMK
39.7%

Draw
24.9%

Dizel Penza
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

24.6%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

25.2%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gornyak-UGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Dizel Penza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dizel Penza than the current prediction. (+1%)

Gornyak UGMK - Dizel Penza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
30. Novosyolov N. (G)	31. Kudashev D. (G)
91. Malorosiyanov D.	83. Sukhov S.
50. Shchemerov A.	75. Pogorishny O. (A)
79. Tarasov M.	91. Andriyanov A.
29. Khremkin K.	95. Pochivalov D.
32. Borisov S.	10. Popov D.
Line 2
85. Zhuravlyov Y.	54. Filippov T.
72. Trofimov Y.	6. Lukichyov A.
56. Ovchinnikov I. (A)	23. Sidlyarov D. (C)
14. Makhrin M. (A)	47. Bobylyov V.
44. Lukhovskoy N.	69. Boluchevsky A.
Line 3
90. Nekrasov N.	77. Bannikov A.
26. Ishimnikov N.	68. Rudakov G.
7. Gordin A.	41. Lukin V.
13. Zaytsev O. (C)	11. Makhanovsky P. (A)
80. Demidovich V.	97. Borisenkov A.
Line 4
62. Shchuchinov A.	78. Balashov M.
83. Karpovich D.	34. Larichev V.
96. Miller N.	96. Baranov Y.
18. Sushchev V.
76. Kashtanov A.
Substitutes
93. Romashkin P. (G)	27. Arzamastsev A. (G)
	16. Polshkov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (2 - 1)
00:43, 0 - 1, Andriyanov A. (G), Popov D. (A), Pochivalov D. (A2)
05:06, 1 - 1, Kashtanov A. (G), Miller N. (A), Sushchev V. (A2)
15:29, 2 - 1, Ovchinnikov I. (G),
3rd Period (0 - 2)
02:06, 2 - 2, Pochivalov D. (G), Pogorishny O. (A), Popov D. (A2)
03:39, 2 - 3, Andriyanov A. (G), Popov D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 3.

Gornyak-UGMK is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dizel has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Dizel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dizel has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Gornyak-UGMK will win today's game, with odds of 2.34.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Gornyak-UGMK won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 39:35. (average 2.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gornyak-UGMK won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 2.3:2.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
16	Dizel	11	3	2	2	4	24:24	12

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.9%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
26.02.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Ryazan	2:1 penalties ✺
24.02.26	Gornyak-UGMK - AKM	4:2 ✺
19.02.26	Chelny - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 ✺
17.02.26	Neftyanik Almetyevsk - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 ✺
15.02.26	CSK VVS Samara - Gornyak-UGMK	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWL
- Dizel Penza
VHL
24.02.26	Dizel Penza - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Dizel Penza - Molot Perm	1:4 ✺
20.02.26	Dizel Penza - Toros Neftekamsk	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Dizel Penza - Izhstal	2:3 OT ✺
10.02.26	Ryazan - Dizel Penza	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
22.09.25	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1
17.02.25	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
06.10.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	4:0
30.11.23	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	0:2
20.11.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	4:3
28.11.22	Dizel Penza - Gornyak-UGMK	5:4
19.11.22	Gornyak-UGMK - Dizel Penza	2:1 penalties

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