Match Info

Liiga

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		HIFK

	1	X	2
	2.3	4.2	2.55
	2.4	3.86	2.65	Watch
	2.35	3.39	2.74
	2.36	3.61	2.76	Watch
	2.3	3.7	2.45
	2.28	4	2.64	Watch
	2.35	3.6	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.45)	3.77 ↑ (3.5)	2.66 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
40%

Draw
24.8%

HIFK
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

26.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

27.1%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

The chances for HIFK have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

HPK - HIFK Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. HPK will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	60. Alnefelt H. (G)
63. Eronen E.	98. Larsen O.
74. Nikkila P. (C)	6. Sund T.
16. Wright C.	81. Pakarinen I. (C)
12. Paivarinta S.	21. Lehtera J. (A)
15. Korhonen O.	71. Makiaho D.
Line 2
43. Kukkonen M.	33. Kiviharju A.
4. Jokirinne V.	4. Nykyri N.
88. Kiiskinen J.	52. Palmu P.
25. Huttunen H.	77. Kodytek P. (A)
94. Hakulinen A. (A)	18. Uronen A.
Line 3
20. Pyke G.	28. Ervasti K.
5. Andzans A.	90. Salmela S.
44. Kopiloff O.	27. Josling S.
64. Kainulainen H. (A)	47. Ashbrook T.
19. Rautiainen T.	54. Somervuori J.
Line 4
3. Kangas K.	40. Lindbohm P.
50. Skinnari A.	82. Karjalainen A.
8. Alitalo V.	42. Sinivuori L.
11. Caron T.	15. Somppi O.
Substitutes
33. Vayrynen M. (G)	73. Kohonen P. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Jokinen O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
11:44, 0 - 1, Palmu P. (G), Kodytek P. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
03:43, Kangas K. (5 min),
03:43, Lindbohm P. (5 min),
08:05, Caron T. (2 min),
09:16, 0 - 2, Ashbrook T. (G), Josling S. (A), Kiviharju A. (A2)
11:37, (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 2)
10:07, Palmu P. (2 min),
10:07, Nikkila P. (2 min),
14:37, Ashbrook T. (2 min),
17:14, 0 - 3, Josling S. (G), Ashbrook T. (A),
18:59, 0 - 4, Makiaho D. (G),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 3.

HPK is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, HIFK has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

HPK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that HPK will win today's game, with odds of 2.35.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 43:64. (average 2.2:3.2).

Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 2.6:2.8).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.75% Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18
14	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31:34	13

Last Results with these Odds

HIFK - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.23%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
22.01.26	KalPa - HPK	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - HPK	2:3 OT ✺
16.01.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Pelicans - HPK	1:4 ✺
09.01.26	HPK - Kiekko-Espoo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LWWWW
- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
21.01.26	HIFK - Vaasan Sport	4:3 OT ✺
17.01.26	HIFK - Kiekko-Espoo	2:3 ✺
16.01.26	Tappara - HIFK	4:5 ✺
14.01.26	HIFK - KooKoo	1:6 ✺
10.01.26	Ilves - HIFK	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
17.12.25	HIFK - HPK	4:3
21.11.25	HPK - HIFK	4:0
22.10.25	HIFK - HPK	2:6
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
02.09.25	HPK - HIFK	6:3
21.08.25	HIFK - HPK	3:2
Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.25	HPK - HIFK	2:3
26.12.24	HIFK - HPK	4:3 penalties

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