Match Info

Liiga

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: LähiTapiola Areena (Jyväskylä)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Sweden	TV4 Play


	JYP		HPK

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.8	3.2
	2.11	3.88	3.12	Watch
	2.11	3.53	3.04
	2.11	3.72	3.11	Watch
	2	3.7	2.8
	2.06	4.1	3.01	Watch
	2	3.75	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.87)	3.78 ↓ (3.84)	3.08 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JYP
45.2%

Draw
24.6%

HPK
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

24.3%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

25.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JYP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for JYP than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

JYP - HPK Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. JYP will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
34. Setanen O. (G)	1. Saarinen K. (G)
44. Vatanen S. (A)	63. Eronen E.
31. Peltola E.	74. Nikkila P. (C)
25. Jormakka P.	16. Wright C.
71. Puustinen J. (A)	12. Paivarinta S.
92. Vidgren A.	94. Hakulinen A. (A)
Line 2
63. Bourque T.	43. Kukkonen M.
29. Winberg T.	4. Jokirinne V.
39. Ojantakanen V.	88. Kiiskinen J.
28. Lassila J. (C)	25. Huttunen H.
61. Huovila S.	10. Vesterinen R.
Line 3
18. Jokinen R.	20. Pyke G.
4. Liikonen V.	3. Kangas K.
40. Torgersson D.	64. Kainulainen H. (A)
17. Makinen O.	23. Loponen M.
91. Nieminen V.	19. Rautiainen T.
Line 4
2. Pulli J.	5. Andzans A.
27. Korjus J.	50. Skinnari A.
89. Tyrvainen A.	15. Korhonen O.
24. Huttu E.	11. Caron T.
Substitutes
35. Salminen O. (G)	33. Vayrynen M. (G)
Coaches
. Matikainen P.	. Manner M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
05:39, Liikonen V. (2 min),
06:42, 0 - 1, Wright C. (G), Kiiskinen J. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
08:23, Hakulinen A. (2 min),
08:39, 1 - 1, Ojantakanen V. (G), Huovila S. (A), Lassila J. (A2)
12:21, Lassila J. (2 min),
12:21, Wright C. (2 min),
12:21, Wright C. (2 min),
16:55, Kiiskinen J. (2 min),
17:15, 2 - 1, Ojantakanen V. (G), Vatanen S. (A), Huovila S. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 3)
10:54, 2 - 2, Jokirinne V. (G), Wright C. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
13:12, 3 - 2, Lassila J. (G), Ojantakanen V. (A), Huovila S. (A2)
14:40, 3 - 3, Jokirinne V. (G), Paivarinta S. (A), Hakulinen A. (A2)
16:36, 3 - 4, Hakulinen A. (Penalty Shot),
19:50, Vidgren A. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
04:55, 4 - 4, Vatanen S. (G), Lassila J. (A), Peltola E. (A2)
Overtime (0 - 0)
Penalties (0 - 2)
1, Hakulinen A. (Penalty Shot),
1, Ojantakanen V. (Penalty Shot),
2, Paivarinta S. (Penalty Shot),
2, Vatanen S. (Penalty Shot),
3, Caron T. (Penalty Shot),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JYP won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

JYP may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

JYP is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that JYP will win today's game, with odds of 2.13.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JYP won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 46:62. (average 2.3:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, JYP won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:26. (average 2.1:2.9).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
5	JYP	10	7	0	0	3	30:25	21
10	Hameenlinna	12	4	3	0	5	28:35	18

Last Results with these Odds

JYP - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.95%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

HPK - the odds 3.63 are the expected chance of winning is 25.73%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JYP Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
03.02.26	Lukko - JYP	5:2 ✺
31.01.26	Vaasan Sport - JYP	1:4 ✺
30.01.26	JYP - TPS	2:1 OT ✺
27.01.26	JYP - Lukko	4:3 ✺
24.01.26	KalPa - JYP	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWL
- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
31.01.26	HPK - Lukko	0:1 OT ✺
24.01.26	HPK - HIFK	0:4 ✺
22.01.26	KalPa - HPK	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Kiekko-Espoo - HPK	2:3 OT ✺
16.01.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
30.12.25	HPK - JYP	2:3 OT
19.12.25	HPK - JYP	1:4
12.12.25	JYP - HPK	3:4 penalties
21.02.25	HPK - JYP	3:0
12.02.25	JYP - HPK	2:1 penalties
11.01.25	HPK - JYP	3:2
28.09.24	JYP - HPK	2:1

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