Match Info

Liiga

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Kivikylan Areena (Rauma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV 3, MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Lukko		HIFK

	1	X	2
	1.87	4.5	3.2
	1.97	4.44	3.14	Watch
	1.99	3.62	3.24
	1.91	4.15	3.33	Watch
	1.85	3.9	3.1
	1.98	4.25	3.11	Watch
	2	3.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2)	4.1 ↑ (3.78)	3.19 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lukko
48.1%

Draw
22.7%

HIFK
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

24.7%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

22.9%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

HIFK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HIFK than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Lukko - HIFK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Raanta A. (G)	60. Alnefelt H. (G)
9. Stenqvist J.	98. Larsen O.
38. Almari N.	6. Sund T.
16. Beaucage A.	81. Pakarinen I. (C)
93. Ruohomaa M. (A)	21. Lehtera J. (A)
24. Krannila J.	18. Uronen A.
Line 2
86. Gelinas E. (C)	33. Kiviharju A.
5. Peters A.	4. Nykyri N.
6. Tuuva L.	43. Marleau V.
88. Morand A.	77. Kodytek P. (A)
18. Jandric S.	71. Makiaho D.
Line 3
34. Viitasalo N.	28. Ervasti K.
56. Olsson A.	40. Lindbohm P.
27. Westerholm Po.	27. Josling S.
10. Joki A.	47. Ashbrook T.
25. Saarela A.	52. Palmu P.
Line 4
43. Valila A.	78. Seppala J.
47. Haapanen T.	42. Sinivuori L.
14. Intonen A.	15. Somppi O.
48. Ikonen H. (A)	54. Somervuori J.
Substitutes
30. Salonen D. (G)	92. Hovinen N. (G)
Coaches
. Lamsa T.	. Jokinen O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
11:46, 1 - 0, Tuuva L. (G), Morand A. (A), Krannila J. (A2)
13:40, 1 - 1, Marleau V. (G), Makiaho D. (A), Lindbohm P. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
08:06, 2 - 1, Stenqvist J. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Krannila J. (A2)
10:05, Nykyri N. (2 min),
14:21, Gelinas E. (2 min),
3rd Period (4 - 1)
03:38, 3 - 1, Beaucage A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Raanta A. (A2)
06:20, Joki A. (2 min),
09:09, 3 - 2, Lindbohm P. (G), Ervasti K. (A),
13:21, Nykyri N. (2 min),
17:19, Kodytek P. (2 min),
17:58, 4 - 2, Stenqvist J. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Almari N. (A2)
18:58, Ashbrook T. (2 min),
19:09, 5 - 2, Beaucage A. (G), Stenqvist J. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
19:46, 6 - 2, Stenqvist J. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 3.

Lukko has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

HIFK's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lukko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lukko has had a series of away games.

Lukko could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 52:46. (average 2.6:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:30. (average 2:3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

IFK Helsinki: 4.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
14	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31:34	13

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.75%, but this team recently wins 65% of matches with these odds.

HIFK - the odds 3.28 are the expected chance of winning is 28.51%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
27.01.26	JYP - Lukko	4:3 ✺
24.01.26	Lukko - Ässät	3:5 ✺
23.01.26	Ässät - Lukko	2:1 OT ✺
17.01.26	Vaasan Sport - Lukko	6:1 ✺
16.01.26	Kärpät - Lukko	5:4 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- HIFK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.01.26	HPK - HIFK	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	HIFK - Vaasan Sport	4:3 OT ✺
17.01.26	HIFK - Kiekko-Espoo	2:3 ✺
16.01.26	Tappara - HIFK	4:5 ✺
14.01.26	HIFK - KooKoo	1:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
26.11.25	Lukko - HIFK	1:3
17.09.25	HIFK - Lukko	1:5
12.02.25	HIFK - Lukko	1:5
31.01.25	Lukko - HIFK	1:4
04.12.24	HIFK - Lukko	1:7
27.09.24	Lukko - HIFK	2:3
24.01.24	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 penalties

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