Match Info

Liiga

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Wemasto Areena (Lahti)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	Pelicans		SaiPa

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.8	1.91
	3.5	4.05	1.92
	3.36	3.9	1.96
	3.41	3.89	1.95	Watch
	3.1	4.2	1.91
	3.19	4.25	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (3.29)	4.02 ↑ (3.75)	1.93 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pelicans
28.1%

Draw
23.4%

SaiPa
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

24.9%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pelicans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

SaiPa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SaiPa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Pelicans - SaiPa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. SaiPa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: SaiPa will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Emond Z. (G)	30. Piiroinen K. (G)
4. Johannesen J.	50. Salminen S. (A)
47. Jordan M. (A)	26. Kivihalme T.
37. Dudas A.	25. Kuusla E.
95. Batna O.	15. Salomaki M.
10. Karvinen R.	51. Kalapudas A.
Line 2
61. Jurgens C. (C)	14. Kramer B.
55. Falk H.	55. Trejbal O.
74. Teutari E.	41. Fortier M.
23. Forsberg C.	82. Nikkanen H.
82. Kettunen A.	10. Kivenmaki O.
Line 3
44. Kousa M. (A)	6. Airola S.
77. Kayhko O.	7. Niinisaari S. (C)
28. Zetterberg L.	92. Zezelj A.
7. Stapley B.	12. Bau S.
96. Kumpula J.	70. Naukkarinen J.
Line 4
83. Luhanka E.	22. Aho K.
93. Nieminen K.	81. Klintrup E.
29. Vaananen M.	18. Heikkila J.
92. Virtanen N.	62. Tauslahti M.
Substitutes
33. Poletin F. (G)	33. Karhunen T. (G)
Coaches
. Kapanen S.	. Helminen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
00:49, (2 min),
07:33, Batna O. (5 min),
14:21, Salomaki M. (2 min),
14:38, 1 - 0, Dudas A. (G), Kumpula J. (A), Stapley B. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
06:33, 2 - 0, Virtanen N. (G), Luhanka E. (A), Nieminen K. (A2)
15:33, Kivihalme T. (2 min),
17:38, 3 - 0, Nieminen K. (G), Kettunen A. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
00:08, Nikkanen H. (2 min),
02:23, Kivihalme T. (2 min),
02:23, Nieminen K. (2 min),
05:55, Vaananen M. (2 min),
09:21, 3 - 1, Nikkanen H. (G), Kivenmaki O. (A), Fortier M. (A2)
18:56, 4 - 1, Vaananen M. (G), Kumpula J. (A), Falk H. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 2.

Pelicans has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

SaiPa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

SaiPa could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 75:45. (average 3.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pelicans won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 39:24. (average 3.9:2.4).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 3.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
12	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 28.39%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

SaiPa - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.7%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	SaiPa - Pelicans	4:2 ✺
06.03.26	Pelicans - HIFK	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Lukko - Pelicans	2:5 ✺
27.02.26	Pelicans - Vaasan Sport	3:2 penalties ✺
25.02.26	Pelicans - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LLWWW
- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	SaiPa - Pelicans	4:2 ✺
04.03.26	HIFK - SaiPa	2:5 ✺
28.02.26	SaiPa - HPK	0:3 ✺
27.02.26	HPK - SaiPa	1:5 ✺
25.02.26	TPS - SaiPa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
07.03.26	SaiPa - Pelicans	4:2
20.11.25	SaiPa - Pelicans	2:3 OT
27.09.25	Pelicans - SaiPa	2:5
08.03.25	Pelicans - SaiPa	3:4
10.01.25	SaiPa - Pelicans	2:4
18.12.24	Pelicans - SaiPa	6:3
25.10.24	SaiPa - Pelicans	3:1

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