Match Info

Liiga

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Wemasto Areena (Lahti) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	18:30	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	17:30	TV4 Play


	Pelicans		SaiPa

	1	X	2
	2.05	4	2.85
	2.10	3.90	2.90
	2.25	3.7	2.95	Watch
	2.14	3.66	3.01
	2.25	3.75	2.8	Watch
	2.09	3.55	2.95
	2.13	4	2.91	Watch
	2.16	3.75	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.28)	3.79 ↑ (3.67)	2.89 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pelicans
43.3%

Draw
24.5%

SaiPa
32.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.7%

25.3%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

26.3%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pelicans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Pelicans - SaiPa Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Pelicans will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Bartosak P. (G)	31. Grigals G. (G)
15. Lerby C.	2. Peski A.
65. Nutivaara M. (A)	4. Hora V.
12. Hamalainen S.	10. Emanuelsson E.
95. Batna O.	28. Intonen A.
91. Pohjalainen A.	11. Fridrich P.
Line 2
4. Johannesen J.	17. Svensk V.
47. Jordan M. (C)	50. Salminen S. (C)
37. Dudas A.	15. Salomaki M. (A)
7. Stapley B.	41. Zabaneh N.
9. Fortier G.	92. Zezelj A.
Line 3
44. Kousa M.	14. Kramer B. (A)
55. Falk H.	55. Trejbal O.
27. Lind O.	19. Moilanen V.
87. Myklukha O.	34. Perttu M.
82. Kettunen A.	75. Siikanen P.
Line 4
71. Hakkila H.	16. Eloranta O.
74. Teutari E.	18. Heikkila J.
29. Vaananen M.	57. Hokkanen O.
23. Forsberg C. (A)	81. Klintrup E.
89. Tyrvainen A.
Substitutes
45. Olkinuora J. (G)	30. Piiroinen K. (G)
Coaches
. Kapanen S.	. Helminen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
03:59, Perttu M. (2 min),
07:18, Jordan M. (2 min),
14:19, Kettunen A. (2 min),
17:09, Heikkila J. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
15:20, Falk H. (2 min),
19:47, 1 - 0, Lind O. (G), Falk H. (A), Kousa M. (A2)
3rd Period (4 - 0)
01:25, Kousa M. (2 min),
01:25, Peski A. (2 min),
05:21, 2 - 0, Johannesen J. (G), Lind O. (A),
08:43, Tyrvainen A. (2 min),
14:49, 3 - 0, Batna O. (G), Hamalainen S. (A), Falk H. (A2)
16:05, Emanuelsson E. (2 min),
16:16, Batna O. (2 min),
18:27, 4 - 0, Vaananen M. (G), Tyrvainen A. (A), Batna O. (A2)
19:36, 5 - 0, Myklukha O. (G), Lind O. (A), Kettunen A. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 2.

In recent outings, Pelicans has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

SaiPa is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

SaiPa may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Pelicans has recorded 15 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 75:43 (averaging 3.8:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Pelicans against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 39:22 goals (averaging 3.9:2.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
12	Pelicans	16	7	1	1	7	40:35	24

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 5.33%

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.71%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

SaiPa - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 34%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.10.26	Pelicans - Tappara	5:4 penalties ✺
20.10.26	HPK - Pelicans	1:3 ✺
17.10.26	KalPa - Pelicans	3:1 ✺
16.10.26	Pelicans - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
09.10.26	Pelicans - Kärpät	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLL
- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
24.10.26	Vaasan Sport - SaiPa	1:3 ✺
23.10.26	Vaasan Sport - SaiPa	3:5 ✺
20.10.26	SaiPa - Kärpät	2:1 penalties ✺
17.10.26	SaiPa - HIFK	7:1 ✺
15.10.26	SaiPa - HPK	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
11.03.26	Pelicans - SaiPa	4:1
07.03.26	SaiPa - Pelicans	4:2
20.11.25	SaiPa - Pelicans	2:3 OT
27.09.25	Pelicans - SaiPa	2:5
08.03.25	Pelicans - SaiPa	3:4
10.01.25	SaiPa - Pelicans	2:4
18.12.24	Pelicans - SaiPa	6:3

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