Match Info

Liiga

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Wemasto Areena (Lahti)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Pelicans		TPS

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.8	2.8
	2.28	3.7	2.92	Watch
	2.27	3.34	2.87
	2.26	3.58	2.92	Watch
	2.15	3.6	2.63
	2.22	3.92	2.8	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 (2.24)	3.63 ↓ (3.94)	2.84 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pelicans
41.6%

Draw
25.6%

TPS
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

23.7%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

23.9%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Pelicans have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pelicans than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Pelicans - TPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
32. Bartosak P. (G)	36. Makiniemi E. (G)
44. Kousa M. (A)	38. Landen A.
61. Jurgens C. (C)	61. Binner A.
37. Dudas A.	49. Wernblom L.
7. Stapley B.	86. Yliniemi S.
10. Karvinen R.	82. Pakkila E.
Line 2
47. Jordan M. (A)	6. Rafkin R.
55. Falk H.	40. Lehtonen S.
88. Vanderbeck A.	9. Koivu A.
29. Vaananen M.	26. Nassen L.
96. Kumpula J.	87. Saarela A.
Line 3
4. Johannesen J.	2. Tuhkala A.
87. Nieminen D.	66. Reunanen T. (C)
74. Teutari E.	84. Pikkarainen K.
23. Forsberg C.	21. Maatta J. (A)
82. Kettunen A.	20. Myllymaa K.
Line 4
3. Huzevka S.	4. Jokinen M.
93. Nieminen K.	10. Ylitalo N.
20. Hirvonen K.	57. Munkki V.
22. Paqvalin J.	90. Uusikartano A.
Substitutes
1. Emond Z. (G)	30. Ruusu M. (G)
Coaches
. Kapanen S.	. Soderholm T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 0)
02:35, Nieminen D. (2 min),
02:58, 1 - 0, Kettunen A. (G),
08:32, Kousa M. (2 min),
16:24, Vanderbeck A. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
00:43, Landen A. (2 min),
08:43, Teutari E. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 0)
01:31, Stapley B. (2 min),
04:30, Munkki V. (2 min),
07:37, Reunanen T. (2 min),
16:55, Dudas A. (2 min),
19:05, 2 - 0, Vaananen M. (G), Dudas A. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 1.

Pelicans has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

TPS's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Pelicans will win today's game, with odds of 2.25.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pelicans won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 52:50. (average 2.6:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Pelicans won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:18. (average 2.7:2).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 3.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16
12	Pelicans	10	5	0	1	4	24:23	16

Last Results with these Odds

Pelicans - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

TPS - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.68%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pelicans Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
06.02.26	Ässät - Pelicans	6:5 ✺
03.02.26	Ilves - Pelicans	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Pelicans - Mikkelin Jukurit	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Kärpät - Pelicans	2:3 OT ✺
24.01.26	Vaasan Sport - Pelicans	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLWWW
- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
06.02.26	Lukko - TPS	3:2 ✺
03.02.26	KalPa - TPS	7:3 ✺
31.01.26	KooKoo - TPS	5:1 ✺
30.01.26	JYP - TPS	2:1 OT ✺
27.01.26	TPS - KalPa	3:2 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
23.01.26	TPS - Pelicans	3:4 OT
25.10.25	Pelicans - TPS	1:2 OT
17.09.25	TPS - Pelicans	3:1
15.03.25	Pelicans - TPS	3:4 OT
18.01.25	TPS - Pelicans	3:2
20.12.24	Pelicans - TPS	3:4
30.10.24	TPS - Pelicans	5:3

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