Match Info

Liiga

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	TPS		Kärpät

	1	X	2
	2.11	4.2	2.8
	2.24	4.11	2.75
	2.13	4.21	2.81	Watch
	2.15	3.8	2.5
	2.2	4.1	2.74	Watch
	2.25	3.75	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.44)	4.03 ↓ (4.28)	2.74 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
42.8%

Draw
23.2%

Kärpät
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

21.8%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

23.9%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kärpät might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with TPS that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kärpät could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

TPS - Kärpät Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Kärpät will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. TPS (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)	41. Rubin N. (G)
2. Tuhkala A.	47. Bjork M. (A)
7. Lauridsen O. (A)	26. Tichacek J.
49. Wernblom L.	38. Raty Aku
86. Yliniemi S.	33. Hirvonen R.
19. Savinainen V.	12. Stalberg S.
Line 2
38. Landen A.	39. Juusola V.
66. Reunanen T. (C)	61. Salmela T.
87. Saarela A.	93. Kantner M. (A)
21. Maatta J. (A)	11. Virta P.
82. Pakkila E.	73. Erholtz E.
Line 3
6. Rafkin R.	55. Ohtamaa A. (C)
40. Lehtonen S.	25. Paaso A.
98. Teissala L.	18. Antti-Roiko A.
57. Munkki V.	19. Tikka T.
88. Elo S.	13. Junttila J.
Line 4
61. Binner A.	4. Ruotsalainen V.
10. Ylitalo N.	16. Heikkala V.
24. Virtanen J.	28. Ojantakanen K.
67. Ruokonen M.	59. Hermonen J.
Substitutes
1. Niittymaki A. (G)	31. Vedenpaa V. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Karjalainen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 1)
14:15, 0 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Stalberg S. (A), Tichacek J. (A2)
16:43, (2 min),
19:48, Ojantakanen K. (2 min),
2nd Period (1 - 0)
02:48, Erholtz E. (2 min),
02:58, 1 - 1, Yliniemi S. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Savinainen V. (A2)
16:13, Wernblom L. (2 min),
16:13, Erholtz E. (2 min),
16:13, Yliniemi S. (2 min),
16:13, Tichacek J. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
04:29, Ojantakanen K. (2 min),
07:42, Teissala L. (2 min),
10:03, 1 - 2, Junttila J. (G), Stalberg S. (A), Antti-Roiko A. (A2)
17:07, Landen A. (2 min),
17:07, Raty Aku (2 min),
18:16, 1 - 3, Junttila J. (G), Erholtz E. (A),
19:41, 2 - 3, Binner A. (G), Maatta J. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.

TPS has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kärpät is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 48:58. (average 2.4:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:33. (average 2.2:3.3).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

TPS Turku: 2.54%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
4	Karpat	13	5	2	3	3	35:34	22
11	TPS Turku	11	5	0	1	5	29:25	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
09.01.26	SaiPa - TPS	1:4 ✺
03.01.26	Ilves - TPS	5:2 ✺
27.12.25	Kiekko-Espoo - TPS	8:1 ✺
26.12.25	TPS - Kiekko-Espoo	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	TPS - HIFK	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLLW
- Kärpat Oulu
Finnish SM-liiga
09.01.26	Lukko - Kärpät	4:1 ✺
07.01.26	Ässät - Kärpät	4:3 ✺
03.01.26	Kärpät - Vaasan Sport	6:0 ✺
30.12.25	Ilves - Kärpät	3:2 OT ✺
27.12.25	Kärpät - JYP	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
21.11.25	Kärpät - TPS	0:4
04.01.25	Kärpät - TPS	4:3
05.10.24	TPS - Kärpät	2:4
27.01.24	Kärpät - TPS	4:3
28.12.23	TPS - Kärpät	3:5
25.10.23	TPS - Kärpät	1:0 OT
20.09.23	Kärpät - TPS	2:3 penalties

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