Match Info

Liiga

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gatorade Center (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	TPS		SaiPa

	1	X	2
	2.9	4.3	2.05
	2.95	3.95	2.18	Watch
	2.86	3.78	2.19
	2.87	3.97	2.16	Watch
	2.75	3.8	2
	2.8	4.2	2.14	Watch
	3.05	3.95	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.05)	3.99 ↑ (3.95)	2.11 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
32.4%

Draw
23.4%

SaiPa
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

23.6%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

23.5%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

SaiPa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SaiPa than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

TPS - SaiPa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
36. Makiniemi E. (G)	31. Grigals G. (G)
38. Landen A.	50. Salminen S. (A)
61. Binner A.	26. Kivihalme T.
49. Wernblom L.	25. Kuusla E.
86. Yliniemi S.	15. Salomaki M.
82. Pakkila E.	51. Kalapudas A.
Line 2
2. Tuhkala A.	14. Kramer B.
7. Lauridsen O. (A)	55. Trejbal O.
87. Saarela A.	41. Fortier M.
21. Maatta J. (A)	82. Nikkanen H.
19. Savinainen V.	10. Kivenmaki O.
Line 3
6. Rafkin R. (C)	6. Airola S.
40. Lehtonen S.	7. Niinisaari S. (C)
9. Koivu A.	75. Siikanen P.
26. Nassen L.	12. Bau S.
84. Pikkarainen K.	62. Tauslahti M.
Line 4
4. Jokinen M.	22. Aho K.
10. Ylitalo N.	81. Klintrup E.
24. Virtanen J.	21. Appelgren N. (A)
67. Ruokonen M.	18. Heikkila J.
Substitutes
32. Vali N. (G)	33. Karhunen T. (G)
Coaches
. Soderholm T.	. Helminen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
07:01, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 2)
07:34, 0 - 1, Kuusla E. (G), Kalapudas A. (A),
10:43, 0 - 2, Niinisaari S. (G), Nikkanen H. (A), Kivenmaki O. (A2)
18:45, Rafkin R. (2 min),
3rd Period (1 - 1)
02:15, Pikkarainen K. (2 min),
04:40, Klintrup E. (2 min),
05:59, Heikkila J. (2 min),
10:00, 1 - 2, Maatta J. (G), Wernblom L. (A), Landen A. (A2)
19:14, 1 - 3, Nikkanen H. (G), Salomaki M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.

TPS has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

SaiPa is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

SaiPa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

SaiPa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 58:51. (average 2.9:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:20. (average 3.4:2.2).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Saipa: 4.11% TPS Turku: 3.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
11	TPS Turku	10	5	0	0	5	26:21	15

Last Results with these Odds

TPS - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.61%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

SaiPa - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.76%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
21.02.26	TPS - JYP	3:8 ✺
14.02.26	Vaasan Sport - TPS	1:4 ✺
13.02.26	TPS - Vaasan Sport	3:1 ✺
10.02.26	TPS - HPK	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Pelicans - TPS	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWL
- SaiPa hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
21.02.26	SaiPa - KooKoo	6:2 ✺
15.02.26	Ässät - SaiPa	3:4 OT ✺
14.02.26	SaiPa - HIFK	5:3 ✺
11.02.26	SaiPa - Ässät	4:0 ✺
08.02.26	Vaasan Sport - SaiPa	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish SM-liiga
09.01.26	SaiPa - TPS	1:4
26.11.25	SaiPa - TPS	6:1
01.11.25	TPS - SaiPa	1:6
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
01.08.25	TPS - SaiPa	0:2
Finnish SM-liiga
24.03.25	SaiPa - TPS	3:2 OT
22.03.25	TPS - SaiPa	1:2
21.03.25	SaiPa - TPS	3:0

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