The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Penrith Panthers 50.9%
Draw 4.3%
New Zealand Warriors 44.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
63.8%
3.9%
32.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.5%
4.5%
37.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Penrith Panthers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penrith Panthers's form might have worsened.
New Zealand Warriors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting New Zealand Warriors's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penrith Panthers than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Zealand Warriors than the current prediction. (-7.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for New Zealand Warriors, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Penrith Panthers - New Zealand Warriors Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:21
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Edwards D. (C)
1. Tuaupiki T.
2. Jenkins T.
2. Watene-Zelezniak D.
3. Tago I.
3. Leiataua A.
5. Alamoti P.
4. Pompey A.
6. Talagi B.
5. Khan-Pereira A.
7. Cogger J.
6. Harris-Tavita C.
8. Leota M.
7. Martin T.
9. Lussick F.
8. Fisher-Harris J. (C)
10. Henry L.
9. Egan W.
11. Papali'i I.
10. Ford J.
12. Martin L.
11. Halasima L.
13. Smith L.
12. Laban J.
21. McLean C.
13. Clark E.
Substitutes
4. Garner L.
14. Healey S.
14. Cole J.
15. Stowers-Smith T.
15. Sorensen S.
16. Vaimauga D.
16. Phillips B.
17. Niukore M.
17. Patea L.
18. Fatialofa K.
18. Scott B.
20. Hanson L.
Coaches
. Cleary I.
. Webster A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (16 - 6)
6', McLean C. (Try),
6', Alamoti P. (Missed Conversion),
17', Laban J. (Try),
18', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
30', McLean C. (Try),
32', Alamoti P. (Conversion Goal),
38', Alamoti P. (Try),
39', Alamoti P. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (4 - 12)
54', Tuaupiki T. (Try),
56', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
59', Khan-Pereira A. (Try),
60', Pompey A. (Conversion Goal),
70', Alamoti P. (Try),
72', Alamoti P. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penrith won 4.
Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.
New Zealand may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Penrith won 16 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 530:304. (average 26.5:15.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Penrith won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 267:120. (average 29.7:13.3).
Australia
France
New-zealand
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Edwards D. (C) 
Watene-Zelezniak D. 
Tago I. 
Halasima L. 
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