Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - ROUND 4

Date: 21 January 2024, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV6
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Aviron Bayonnais		Exeter Chiefs

	1	X	2
	2.63	23	1.5
	2.62	23	1.47
	3	23	1.4
	2.9	20	1.45
	2.6	22	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.1)	22.2 ↑ (20.67)	1.47 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
33.3%

Draw
4.1%

Exeter Chiefs
62.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

4.4%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

4.3%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aviron Bayonnais's form might have worsened.

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Exeter Chiefs's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aviron Bayonnais than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aviron Bayonnais, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Exeter Chiefs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.1%	92.9%

Aviron Bayonnais - Exeter Chiefs Predictions

Users Predictions: Exeter Chiefs will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:29

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Preview

Bayonne is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Exeter Chiefs is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Exeter Chiefs have a series of home games.

Exeter Chiefs will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Bayonne won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 33-69.

Including matches at home between the teams Bayonne won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 30-24.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.01.24	Northampton Saints - Aviron Bayonnais	61:14 ✺
French Top 14
06.01.24	Bordeaux Bègles - Aviron Bayonnais	24:23 ✺
30.12.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Racing Métro	27:23 ✺
22.12.23	Perpignan - Aviron Bayonnais	36:10 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
15.12.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Glasgow Warriors	11:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLL
- Exeter Chiefs
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.01.24	Exeter Chiefs - Glasgow Warriors	19:17 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
06.01.24	Exeter Chiefs - Northampton Saints	36:42 ✺
29.12.23	Bristol Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	14:24 ✺
23.12.23	Exeter Chiefs - Leicester Tigers	29:10 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.12.23	Exeter Chiefs - Munster	32:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
24.01.15	Exeter Chiefs - Aviron Bayonnais	45:3
18.10.14	Aviron Bayonnais - Exeter Chiefs	30:24

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