Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 2

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Ellis Park Stadium (Johannesburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Supersport Action, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport CSN, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, URC


	Lions		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.17	34	5
	1.17	30	4.9
	1.19	28.96	4.91	Watch
	1.16	27	4.55
	1.18	31	5.41
	1.17	30	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.17 ↓ (1.22)	30.16 ↑ (24.71)	4.95 ↑ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-39)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
78.4%

Draw
3%

Ospreys
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

76%

3.8%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Lions - Ospreys Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 50:11

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 12)
2nd Half (25 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lions won 1.

Lions has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lions holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Lions has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 189:198 (averaging 27:28.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lions against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 102:81 goals (averaging 34:27 per game).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Ospreys: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Lions	2	2	0	0	62:45	9
15	Ospreys	2	0	0	2	43:76	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
26.09.26	Lions - Leinster	27:26 ✺
Currie Cup
06.09.26	Griquas - Lions	52:12 ✺
28.08.26	Lions - Stormers XXIII	36:12 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
25.08.26	Lions - New Zealand	35:41 ✺
Currie Cup
21.08.26	Sharks - Lions	22:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWLL
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
26.09.26	Sharks - Ospreys	41:24 ✺
16.05.26	Leinster - Ospreys	68:14 ✺
09.05.26	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	27:20 ✺
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
18.04.26	Ospreys - Sharks	21:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24
17.05.25	Lions - Ospreys	29:28
Challenge Cup Rugby
08.12.24	Ospreys - Lions	30:14
United Rugby Championship
30.03.24	Ospreys - Lions	36:21
Challenge Cup Rugby
21.01.24	Lions - Ospreys	28:38
United Rugby Championship
24.09.22	Ospreys - Lions	27:28
25.03.22	Lions - Ospreys	45:15

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