Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, France 3, France 4
United-kingdom	ITV 4, ITV X, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Montpellier		Ulster

	1	X	2
	1.33	23	3.5
	1.32	25	3.45
	1.35	22.12	3.38	Watch
	1.33	23	3.5
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.34)	23.28 ↑ (20.95)	3.46 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
69.3%

Draw
4%

Ulster
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

4.4%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

4.2%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Ulster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montpellier - Ulster Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Forletta E.	1. Bell A.
2. Uelese J.	2. Stewart T.
3. Haouas M.	3. O'Toole T.
4. Verhaeghe F.	4. Sheridan H.
5. Duguid T.	5. Izuchukwu C.
6. Nouchi L.	6. McCann D.
7. Becognee A.	7. Timoney N.
8. Vunipola B.	8. Augustus J.
9. Price A.	9. Doak N.
10. Miotti H.	10. Murphy J.
11. Taofifenua D.	11. Ward Z.
12. Cadot A.	12. Postlethwaite J.
13. Vincent A.	13. Hume J.
14. Ngandebe G.	14. Baloucoune R.
15. Banks T.	15. Lowry M.
Substitutes
16. Akrab L.	16. McCormick J.
17. Erdocio B.	17. O’Sullivan E.
18. Hounkpatin W.	18. Wilson S.
19. Beard A.	19. Irvine C.
20. Tauleigne M.	20. Ward B.
21. Coly L.	21. McKee C.
22. Darmon T.	22. Flannery J.
23. Echegaray J.	23. Mcilroy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 12)
2', Timoney N. (Try),
3', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
5', Ngandebe G. (Try),
6', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
15', Taofifenua D. (Try),
16', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
27', Izuchukwu C. (Try),
31', Vunipola B. (Try),
32', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
37', Becognee A. (Try),
2nd Half (33 - 14)
45', Taofifenua D. (Try),
46', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
49', Nouchi L. (Try),
49', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
55', Baloucoune R. (Try),
56', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),
58', Erdocio B. (Try),
59', Coly L. (Conversion Goal),
63', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
64', Coly L. (Conversion Goal),
72', Lowry M. (Try),
72', Flannery J. (Conversion Goal),
79', Vincent A. (Try),

Preview

Montpellier is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ulster is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Ulster has had a series of home games.

In this match, Montpellier is considered a favorite.

We predict that Montpellier will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 41:92. (average 13.7:30.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:65. (average 12.5:32.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
16.05.26	Castres - Montpellier	33:36 ✺
09.05.26	Montpellier - Montauban	59:7 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
French Top 14
25.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	42:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWWWW
- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
15.05.26	Ulster - Glasgow Warriors	22:26 ✺
08.05.26	Ulster - Stormers	38:38 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
02.05.26	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	29:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
25.04.26	Munster - Ulster	41:14 ✺
17.04.26	Ulster - Leinster	21:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
07.04.24	Montpellier - Ulster	17:40
Heineken Cup
10.01.14	Ulster - Montpellier	27:16
19.10.13	Montpellier - Ulster	8:25

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