Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 3

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC


	Newport Gwent Dragons		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	1.67	21	2.3
	1.69	22	2.2
	1.7	19.89	2.26	Watch
	1.66	20	2.14
	1.75	20	2.24
	1.69	22	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.7)	20.82 ↑ (19.89)	2.22 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport Gwent Dragons
54.3%

Draw
4.4%

Ospreys
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

4.7%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport Gwent Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Dragons will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:23

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 1.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Dragons has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 404:525 (averaging 20.2:26.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dragons against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 220:239 goals (averaging 20:21.7 per game).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Ospreys: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Dragons	2	1	1	0	57:45	7
15	Ospreys	2	0	0	2	43:76	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
03.10.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	38:26 ✺
25.09.26	Benetton Treviso - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:19 ✺
16.05.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	35:35 ✺
09.05.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	15:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTTLL
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
03.10.26	Lions - Ospreys	35:19 ✺
26.09.26	Sharks - Ospreys	41:24 ✺
16.05.26	Leinster - Ospreys	68:14 ✺
09.05.26	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	27:20 ✺
24.04.26	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	24:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:13
25.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	19:19
26.04.25	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	57:24
21.09.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	23:21
18.05.24	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	26:13
18.11.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	20:5
25.03.23	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	37:18

Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide