Match Info

EUROPE: Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 5


	Ospreys		Newcastle Red Bulls

	1	X	2
	1.02	51	15
	1.02	34	11
	1.03	45	11
	1.02	55.5	13.54
	1.02	51	15
	1.02	50	21
	1.03	45	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↓ (1.03)	47.36 ↑ (43.83)	13.93 ↑ (12.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-26)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
91.3%

Draw
2%

Newcastle Red Bulls
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

90.3%

2.1%

7.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Ospreys - Newcastle Red Bulls Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 40:14

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thomas G.	1. Rewcastle M.
2. Parry S.	2. Fletcher O.
3. Botha T.	3. Hancock C.
4. Spencer W.	4. Hawkins J.
5. Griffiths W.	5. Scott A.
6. Morgan J. (C)	6. van der Walt P. (C)
7. Tipuric J.	7. Bainbridge J.
8. Morris M.	8. Leatherbarrow O.
9. Morgan-Williams R.	9. Elliott J.
10. Edwards D.	10. Wilkinson K.
11. Giles K.	11. Greenwood N.
12. Williams K.	12. Doherty C.
13. Watkin O.	13. Spencer O.
14. Kasende D.	14. Pepper M.
15. Walsh J.	15. Brown L.
Substitutes
16. Lloyd L.	16. Byrne B.
17. Phillips G.	17. Hancock C.
18. Warren B.	18. McCallum M.
19. Ratti J.	19. Baker F.
20. Morse M.	20. Parsons R.
21. Hardy K.	21. O’Sullivan H.
22. Boshoff E.	22. Metcalf J.
23. Houston H.	23. Beeckmans R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 10)
7', Brown L. (Try),
8', Wilkinson K. (Conversion Goal),
16', Walsh J. (Try),
16', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
18', Wilkinson K. (Penalty Goal),
27', Parry S. (Try),
27', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
31', Kasende D. (Try),
31', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
37', Spencer W. 🟨,
2nd Half (14 - 5)
64', Walsh J. (Try),
65', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
67', Hardy K. (Try),
68', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
78', Pepper M. (Try),

Preview

Recent matches Ospreys is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newcastle Falcons has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Ospreys could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ospreys is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Ospreys won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 95:49 (average 31.7:16.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ospreys won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 69:28 (average 34.5:14).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
01.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	13:13 ✺
21.12.24	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	23:22 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Montpellier - Ospreys	59:15 ✺
08.12.24	Ospreys - Lions	30:14 ✺
United Rugby Championship
30.11.24	Zebre - Ospreys	22:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWLWL
- Newcastle Red Bulls
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	14:38 ✺
28.12.24	Northampton Saints - Newcastle Red Bulls	61:0 ✺
21.12.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Bath	15:40 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
15.12.24	Newcastle Red Bulls - Newport Gwent Dragons	14:22 ✺
08.12.24	Section Paloise - Newcastle Red Bulls	32:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
03.04.21	Ospreys - Newcastle Red Bulls	24:28
21.01.17	Newcastle Red Bulls - Ospreys	21:26
14.10.16	Ospreys - Newcastle Red Bulls	45:0

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