Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 16

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi (Parma)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby, URC


	Zebre		Newport Gwent Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.73	21	2.2
	1.65	18	2.33
	1.66	20.45	2.35	Watch
	1.67	19	2.3
	1.69	19	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.25)	19.49 ↓ (25.25)	2.31 ↓ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zebre
55.2%

Draw
4.8%

Newport Gwent Dragons
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

74.7%

3.7%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zebre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Zebre's form might have worsened.

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newport Gwent Dragons's recent form is better than expected.

Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:24

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 7)
2nd Half (15 - 12)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zebre won 2.

Zebre is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dragons's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Dragons has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zebre won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 424:468. (average 21.2:23.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Zebre won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 318:268. (average 28.9:24.4).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Zebre: 0.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Dragons	2	1	1	0	57:45	7
16	Zebre	2	0	0	2	40:87	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zebre Rugby
United Rugby Championship
17.04.26	Edinburgh - Zebre	31:30 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:35 ✺
05.04.26	Zebre - Section Paloise	31:15 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Zebre - Ulster	12:28 ✺
20.03.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Zebre	36:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLWLL
- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
17.04.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Blue Bulls	7:47 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:35 ✺
05.04.26	Stade Français - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:36 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	42:26 ✺
22.03.26	Stormers - Newport Gwent Dragons	29:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:35
United Rugby Championship
28.02.25	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:21
29.03.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Zebre	20:13
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.01.24	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	20:17
United Rugby Championship
29.10.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Zebre	47:7
30.04.22	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	23:18
27.02.21	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	26:15

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