Match Info

SWITZERLAND: Challenge League - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Fontenette (Carouge)

Referee: von Mandach J. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom


	Étoile Carouge		Thun

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.2
	3.4	3.25	2.08
	3.67	3.41	2.06
	3.63	3.28	2.06	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2.05
	3.58	3.22	2.03	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.79)	3.25 ↓ (3.35)	2.08 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Étoile Carouge
27.1%

Draw
28.5%

Thun
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.7%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

28%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Étoile Carouge's form might have worsened.

Thun has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thun's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Étoile Carouge, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thun than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thun, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Étoile Carouge - Thun Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antonio S. (G) 22. Rufli V. 25. Felder V. 13. Zoukit N. 80. Oberli B. 8. Chappuis A. (C) 7. Correia O. 27. Ricardo Alves 21. Camara S. 29. Sestito L. 70. Simbakoli U.	1. Ziswiler N. (G) 37. Dahler L. 4. Montolio G. 19. Bamert J. 47. Fehr F. 6. Bertone L. (C) 8. Janjicic V. 70. Reichmuth N. 7. Castroman M. 11. Stewart L. 18. Ibayi C.
Substitutes
10. Caslei B. 18. Diallo M. M. (G) 6. El Jaouhari M. 28. Henchoz N. 14. Hysenaj F. 4. Magnin M. 5. Maouche Y. 30. Ninte M. 9. Traore B.	17. Balaruban A. 5. Franke D. 29. Frith D. 33. Gutbub M. 77. Meichtry F. 74. Rastoder E. 16. Roth J. 46. Sessolo H. 24. Steffen N. (G)
Coaches
Ursea A.	Lustrinelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Simbakoli U. 🟨,
19', Oberli B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
74', Sestito L. ↓, Ninte M. ↑,
75', Camara S. ↓, Caslei B. ↑,
75', Stewart L. ↓, Gutbub M. ↑,
80', Reichmuth N. ↓, Frith D. ↑,
80', Janjicic V. ↓, Roth J. ↑,
84', Simbakoli U. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
84', Correia O. ↓, Hysenaj F. ↑,
85', Ibayi C. ↓, Rastoder E. ↑,
85', Castroman M. ↓, Sessolo H. ↑,
90+1', Fehr F. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Étoile is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Thun is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Étoile: Harrington F. (Injury) Petit V. (Inactive)

There will not play in Thun: Tebily H. (Injury) Tomas M. (Inactive)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Étoile won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Étoile won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League
07.03.25	Stade Nyonnais - Étoile Carouge	0:3 ✺
02.03.25	Étoile Carouge - Vaduz	3:2 ✺
Swiss Cup
26.02.25	Étoile Carouge - Basel	1:3 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
22.02.25	Bellinzona - Étoile Carouge	0:0 ✺
14.02.25	Schaffhausen - Étoile Carouge	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLTT
- FC Thun
Swiss Challenge League
09.03.25	Thun - Lausanne Ouchy	2:1 ✺
28.02.25	Thun - Stade Nyonnais	2:2 ✺
23.02.25	Wil 1900 - Thun	2:3 ✺
14.02.25	Aarau - Thun	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Thun - Bellinzona	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
09.11.24	Thun - Étoile Carouge	2:1
09.08.24	Étoile Carouge - Thun	0:2

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