Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Referee: Lozano S. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	ADT Tarma		Alianza Atlético

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	3.75	Watch
	1.90	3.30	3.40
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.03	3.37	4.15
	1.89	3.59	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.05	4.05
	1.94	3.45	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	3.78 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
47.6%

Draw
27.8%

Alianza Atlético
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.7%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28.8%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. ADT will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Valencia J. (G) 31. Navarro J. 23. Narvaez J. 28. Soto J. 44. Benincasa H. 80. Canela Torres J. J. 6. Ojeda A. 16. Perez L. (C) 59. Nunez O. 24. Peralta S. 32. Bauman J.	31. Rivadeneyra S. (G) 21. Perleche E. 2. Suarez R. 6. Lujan J. 24. Gordillo A. 15. Lupu H. (C) 10. Diaz G. 27. Ingratti J. 22. del Castillo J. 17. Penilla C. 29. Molina J.
Substitutes
10. Cedron V. 26. Garcilazo J. 27. Hidalgo A. 77. Lucumi J. 98. Ramos A. 9. Rengifo H. 2. Reyes J. 3. Rugel L. 33. Solis C. (G)	16. Fernandez S. 8. Flores F. 25. Guzman W. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 19. Mendieta J. 23. Munoz A. 20. Perez J. 95. Prieto D. (G) 77. Valladolid C.
Coaches
Usucar F.	Urciuoli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Molina J. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Bauman J. ⚽, Soto J. (A),
34', del Castillo J. 🟨,
40', Perleche E. 🟨,
45+2', del Castillo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Molina J. 🟨,
61', Benincasa H. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,
62', Navarro J. ↓, Lucumi J. ↑,
65', Gordillo A. ↓, Mendieta J. ↑,
66', Ojeda A. 🟨,
69', Suarez R. 🟨,
72', Peralta S. ↓, Hidalgo A. ↑,
72', Ojeda A. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,
72', Perleche E. ↓, Guzman W. ↑,
86', Canela Torres J. J. 🟨,
86', Lujan J. 🟨,
87', Bauman J. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Perez L. 🟨,
90', Molina J. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
90', Ingratti J. ↓, Larios Saavedra G. A. ↑,
90+2', Nunez O. ↓, Garcilazo J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2.

Recent form of ADT has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alianza Atlético's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

ADT is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in ADT: Pereyra J. (Red Card)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, ADT won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, ADT won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
08.08.26	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Sport Boys - ADT Tarma	2:0 ✺
18.07.26	ADT Tarma - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
10.07.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TLLLW
- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
06.08.26	Alianza Atlético - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Alianza Lima - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
24.07.26	Alianza Atlético - Los Chankas	3:1 ✺
18.07.26	Cusco - Alianza Atlético	4:1 ✺
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
10.07.26	Alianza Atlético - Pirata	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	0:0
26.09.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	1:0
04.05.25	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	2:0
28.09.24	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	0:1
28.04.24	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	1:2
24.09.23	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	1:0
06.05.23	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	1:1

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