Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		Atlético Grau

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.3	3.9
	1.68	3.65	4.85	Watch
	1.66	3.75	5.2
	1.68	3.71	5.04	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.33
	1.67	3.6	5.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.62)	3.53 ↑ (3.5)	4.7 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
54%

Draw
26.3%

Atlético Grau
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

26.5%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

26.2%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Atlético Grau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Solis C. (G) 15. Alvino J. 23. Narvaez J. 28. Soto J. 27. Hidalgo A. 16. Perez L. 8. Guivin Tanta J. 22. Rodriguez A. 10. Cedron V. (C) 7. Rojas J. 32. Bauman J.	1. Alvarez P. (C) 4. Rodriguez D. 27. Tapia R. 2. Acevedo L. 16. Ataupillco J. 6. Rodas E. 66. de la Cruz A. 22. Neira C. 5. Guarderas R. 11. Delgadillo N. 9. Ruidiaz R.
Substitutes
21. Benites Vargas L. E. 4. Biojo R. 25. Garcia S. 18. Mazzo A. 31. Navarro J. 9. Rengifo H. 37. Rengifo N. 30. Valencia J. (G) 5. Vega J.	25. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 33. Calderon A. (G) 19. Camargo I. 21. Correa E. 29. Franco E. 13. Oncoy F. 24. Ruidiaz Y. 32. Torres S. 20. Vasquez A.
Coaches
Ripacolli D.	Ameli G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Guivin Tanta J. ⚽,
25', Rodriguez A. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
45+4', Acevedo L. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Delgadillo N. ↓, Camargo I. ↑,
58', Hidalgo A. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
63', Rodas E. ↓, Alfaro Martinez G. E. ↑,
63', Guarderas R. ↓, Oncoy F. ↑,
75', de la Cruz A. ↓, Ruidiaz Y. ↑,
75', Neira C. ↓, Franco E. ↑,
76', Rojas J. ↓, Mazzo A. ↑,
76', Cedron V. ↓, Navarro J. ↑,
76', Bauman J. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, ADT is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in ADT: Arakaki H. (Injury) Cabello C. (Red Card)

There will not play in Grau: de la Cruz P. (Red Card)

There are questionable in ADT: Rengifo H. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, ADT won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Grau	11	5	2	4	14:13	1	17
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
27.04.26	ADT Tarma - Los Chankas	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
14.04.26	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	3:2 ✺
20.03.26	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLLT
- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.26	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
22.04.26	Atlético Grau - Sporting Cristal	4:1 ✺
17.04.26	Los Chankas - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
31.08.25	Atlético Grau - ADT Tarma	2:0
15.02.25	ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau	4:3
04.08.24	ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau	1:2
25.02.24	Atlético Grau - ADT Tarma	2:2
23.07.23	ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau	1:0
19.02.23	Atlético Grau - ADT Tarma	1:1
04.09.22	ADT Tarma - Atlético Grau	1:1

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