Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
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Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
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Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 13
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 9
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Rayo Vallecano		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	7
	1.58	3.7	5.9
	1.56	4.09	6.8
	1.58	3.99	6.12	Watch
	1.53	3.7	6
	1.54	3.82	7.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)	3.85 ↑ (3.77)	6.48 ↑ (5.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
60.9%

Draw
24.6%

Samsunspor
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

25.2%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

24.6%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	7.9%	2.6%

Rayo Vallecano - Samsunspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rayo Vallecano will win (33 of 36 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.64% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. (C) 6. Ciss P. 17. Lopez U. 19. de Frutos J. 9. Alemao 18. Garcia A.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 55. Cift Y. E. 37. Satka L. (C) 4. Van Drongelen R. 2. Mendes J. 29. Makoumbou A. 21. Holse C. 5. Yuksel C. 17. Tomasson L. 19. Ndiaye C. 9. Marius
Substitutes
12. Akhomach I. 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.	23. Albak E. 25. Atoen F. 24. Borevkovic T. 99. Ceesay E. 70. Coulibaly T. 71. Egribayat I. (G) 28. Gonul S. 11. Kilinc E. 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 18. Yavru Z.
Coaches
Perez I.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Yuksel C. 🟨,
32', Chavarria P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Marius 🟨,
64', Alemao ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Ndiaye C. ⚽, Marius (A),
79', de Frutos J. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
79', Palazon I. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
80', Lopez U. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
80', Mendes J. ↓, Kilinc E. ↑,
81', Cift Y. E. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
85', Camello S. 🟨,
86', Van Drongelen R. 🟨,
87', Holse C. ↓, Borevkovic T. ↑,
90', Garcia A. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
90+2', Kilinc E. 🟨,
90+3', Yavru Z. 🟨,
90+4', Yavru Z. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-1. Second leg.

Rayo Vallecano is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samsunspor has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rayo Vallecano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rayo Vallecano is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Martin C. (Inactive) Mendez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Diabbate A. B. (Inactive) Jarju S. (Inactive) Kayan Y. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Tavsan E. (Inactive) Ustun E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Akhomach I. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Ntcham O. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rayo Vallecano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
16.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Levante	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
08.03.26	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTWT
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
15.03.26	Samsunspor - Kayserispor	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.03.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Samsunspor - Gaziantep	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3

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