Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 6
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 9
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	20:00	SÝN Sport 2, Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	14:00	Claro Sports
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	23:00	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 13
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 9
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus
International	20:00	VIX App


	Rayo Vallecano		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	7
	1.58	3.7	5.9
	1.56	4.09	6.8
	1.58	3.99	6.12	Watch
	1.53	3.7	6
	1.54	3.82	7.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.67)	3.85 ↑ (3.77)	6.48 ↑ (5.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
60.9%

Draw
24.6%

Samsunspor
14.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.9%

25.2%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

24.4%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	7.9%	2.6%

Rayo Vallecano - Samsunspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rayo Vallecano will win (33 of 36 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.64% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. (C) 6. Ciss P. 17. Lopez U. 19. de Frutos J. 9. Alemao 18. Garcia A.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 55. Cift Y. E. 37. Satka L. (C) 4. Van Drongelen R. 2. Mendes J. 29. Makoumbou A. 21. Holse C. 5. Yuksel C. 17. Tomasson L. 19. Ndiaye C. 9. Marius
Substitutes
12. Akhomach I. 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.	23. Albak E. 25. Atoen F. 24. Borevkovic T. 99. Ceesay E. 70. Coulibaly T. 71. Egribayat I. (G) 28. Gonul S. 11. Kilinc E. 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 18. Yavru Z.
Coaches
Perez I.	Fink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Yuksel C. 🟨,
32', Chavarria P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Marius 🟨,
64', Alemao ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Ndiaye C. ⚽, Marius (A),
79', de Frutos J. ↓, Camello S. ↑,
79', Palazon I. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
80', Lopez U. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
80', Mendes J. ↓, Kilinc E. ↑,
81', Cift Y. E. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
85', Camello S. 🟨,
86', Van Drongelen R. 🟨,
87', Holse C. ↓, Borevkovic T. ↑,
90', Garcia A. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
90+2', Kilinc E. 🟨,
90+3', Yavru Z. 🟨,
90+4', Yavru Z. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-1. Second leg.

Rayo Vallecano is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samsunspor has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rayo Vallecano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rayo Vallecano is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Martin C. (Inactive) Mendez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Diabbate A. B. (Inactive) Jarju S. (Inactive) Kayan Y. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Tavsan E. (Inactive) Ustun E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Akhomach I. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Ntcham O. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rayo Vallecano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
16.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Levante	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
08.03.26	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWTWT
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
15.03.26	Samsunspor - Kayserispor	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3 ✺
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.03.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Samsunspor - Gaziantep	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano	1:3

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