What is the expert prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, April 09, 2026)

Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Referee: Walsh N. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
France	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	RTL+, Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal + Cha Tate
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Claro Sports, Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sky Sport Mix
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 7
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	On Golf, ON Plus


	Shakhtar Donetsk		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.18	3.35	3.45
	2.15	3.43	3.61
	2.22	3.5	3.39	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.2	3.41	3.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.48)	3.37 ↓ (3.47)	3.47 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhtar Donetsk
44.2%

Draw
28.3%

AZ Alkmaar
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

27.4%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

27.7%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhtar Donetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shakhtar Donetsk's performance.

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shakhtar Donetsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.1%	25.8%	16.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 18 - 60%). AZ will win (votes: 5 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shakhtar: 42.5% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 13. Henrique P. 27. Ocheretko O. 30. Alisson 10. Pedrinho 14. Isaque Silva 11. Newerton 19. Kaua Elias	41. Zoet J. (G) 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 23. van Duijl B. 2. Maikuma S. 26. Smit K. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 34. de Wit M. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 11. Sadiq I.
Substitutes
16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 7. Eguinaldo 26. Konoplya Y. 49. Luca Meirelles 37. Lucas Ferreira 4. Marlon 29. Nazaryna Y. 68. Obah P. 9. Shved M. 2. Traore L. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G)	74. Boogaard K. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 27. Daal R. 31. Deen D. (G) 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 18. Ichihara R. 45. Kovacs B. 35. Meerdink M. 24. Oufkir A. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Turan A.	Echteld L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Isaque Silva ↓, Bondarenko A. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Maikuma S. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
48', Penetra 🟨,
55', Sadiq I. ↓, Daal R. ↑,
59', Henrique P. 🟨,
64', de Wit M. 🟨,
72', 1 - 0, Pedrinho ⚽,
73', Weslley Patati ↓, Oufkir A. ↑,
74', Kaua Elias ↓, Traore L. ↑,
74', Newerton ↓, Eguinaldo ↑,
74', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Alisson ⚽,
83', 3 - 0, Alisson ⚽, Eguinaldo (A),
89', Pedrinho ↓, Nazaryna Y. ↑,
89', Alisson ↓, Konoplya Y. ↑,

Preview

First leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Shakhtar: Ghram A. (Red Card) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Sigeev K. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Inactive) Hornkamp J. (Injury) Jensen I. (Yellow Cards) Kasius D. (Injury) Koopmeiners P. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Shakhtar: Kryskiv D. (Injury) Marlon Gomes (Injury) Obah P. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shakhtar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
05.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Rukh Lviv	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
15.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Metalist 1925	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
06.03.26	Oleksandriya - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
04.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Groningen - AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Sparta Prague - AZ Alkmaar	0:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
15.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
08.07.23	AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:3

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