Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 32

Date: 23 April 2023, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade François Coty (Ajaccio) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
France	15:00	Amazon Prime Video


	Ajaccio		Brest

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.3	2.95	2.35
	3.35	3.05	2.33
	3.4	3	2.31
	3.58	3.09	2.38
	3.4	3	2.3
	3.44	3.02	2.33	Watch
	3.45	3.05	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3)	3.01 ↓ (3.08)	2.34 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajaccio
27.8%

Draw
31.6%

Brest
40.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.5%

30.7%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	23.3%	63.3%

Ajaccio - Brest Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Brest will win (votes: 19 - 63.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 46.1% – 80.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 16).

Ajaccio has the most likely position - 19 (51.25%), project points - 26, currently - 21, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Brest has the most likely position - 15 (23.44%), project points - 40, currently - 31, a chance of relegated (20%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 49, small importance 23, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 3.

Ajaccio has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Brest is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Brest will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ajaccio: Cimignani Y. (Injury) Youssouf M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Brest: Lala K. (Yellow Cards) Remy L. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Brest to win the game is with odds 2.37.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 16-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 1
16.04.23	Strasbourg - Ajaccio	3:1 ✺
09.04.23	Ajaccio - Auxerre	0:3 ✺
02.04.23	Clermont - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
19.03.23	Ajaccio - Monaco	0:2 ✺
12.03.23	Ajaccio - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
16.04.23	Brest - Nice	1:0 ✺
09.04.23	Reims - Brest	1:1 ✺
02.04.23	Brest - Toulouse	3:1 ✺
19.03.23	Troyes - Brest	2:2 ✺
11.03.23	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
18.09.22	Brest - Ajaccio	0:1
French Ligue 2
23.04.19	Ajaccio - Brest	0:2
30.11.18	Brest - Ajaccio	2:0
12.01.18	Brest - Ajaccio	2:3
04.08.17	Ajaccio - Brest	2:1
03.03.17	Brest - Ajaccio	1:2
30.09.16	Ajaccio - Brest	1:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
02.11.26	Lorient - Brest	✺

Ajaccio - Brest