Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 31

Date: 16 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Meinau (Strasbourg)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
France	Amazon Prime Video
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Strasbourg		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.4	6	Watch
	1.68	3.4	5.75
	1.74	3.45	5.4
	1.69	3.4	5.5
	1.7	3.59	6.29
	1.7	3.4	5.8
	1.69	3.54	5.65	Watch
	1.72	3.55	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	3.47 ↓ (3.49)	5.8 ↑ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Strasbourg
56.1%

Draw
27.5%

Ajaccio
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

27.2%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

18.8%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Strasbourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Strasbourg than the current prediction. (-18.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Strasbourg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajaccio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Strasbourg - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: Strasbourg will win (56 of 64 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.4% – 95.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Strasbourg has the most likely position - 16 (27.51%), project points - 38, currently - 26, a chance of relegated (28%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Ajaccio has the most likely position - 19 (46.08%), project points - 27, currently - 21, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 53, importance 34, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Strasbourg is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ajaccio has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Strasbourg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Strasbourg is a favorite.

There will not play in Strasbourg: Diallo H. (Red Card) Kawashima E. (Shoulder Injury) Lienard D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ajaccio: Belaili Y. (Groin Injury) Cimignani Y. (Injury) Vidal C. (Yellow Cards) Youssouf M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Strasbourg: Le Marchand M. (Ankle Injury) Nyamsi G. (Ankle Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Strasbourg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Strasbourg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Strasbourg
French Ligue 1
07.04.23	Lens - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
02.04.23	Monaco - Strasbourg	4:3 ✺
19.03.23	Strasbourg - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
05.03.23	Strasbourg - Brest	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWTL
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 1
09.04.23	Ajaccio - Auxerre	0:3 ✺
02.04.23	Clermont - Ajaccio	2:1 ✺
19.03.23	Ajaccio - Monaco	0:2 ✺
12.03.23	Ajaccio - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
05.03.23	Reims - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
05.11.22	Ajaccio - Strasbourg	4:2
French Ligue 2
17.04.17	Strasbourg - Ajaccio	4:2
18.11.16	Ajaccio - Strasbourg	2:0

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