Match Info

FRANCE: Coupe de France - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Millot B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Canada	beIN Connect
China	ZhiBo8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Magenta Sport
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	Spiler2 TV
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	TVC Deportes
Norway	VG+
Puerto-rico	Fox Sports 2
Russia	TV Start Triumph
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Foxsports.com


	Lille		Dunkerque

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.5	9.5	Watch
	1.24	5.75	9.75
	1.25	6.4	10.5	Watch
	1.27	6.32	10.29
	1.24	5.94	10.84	Watch
	1.25	5.5	10
	1.27	5.59	9.66	Watch
	1.25	6.4	10.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.47)	5.93 ↑ (4.37)	10.13 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Coupe De France with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Sports 2

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Current Win Probability

Lille
74.9%

Draw
15.8%

Dunkerque
9.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

21.2%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

21.1%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lille's performance.

Dunkerque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dunkerque might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dunkerque could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	5.9%	0%

Lille - Dunkerque Predictions

Users Predictions: Lille will win (31 of 33 users predict this - 93.94%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannone V. (G) 3. Meunier T. 5. Diakite B. 4. Alexsandro 2. Bakker M. 8. Mukau N. 6. Andre B. (C) 11. Sahraoui O. 10. Cabella R. 7. Haraldsson H. 9. David J.	1. Jaouen E. (G) 2. Georgen A. 5. Sangante O. (C) 3. Kondo G. 4. Abner F. 6. Diop M. 11. Sekongo A. 7. Al Saad M. 8. Essimi M. 10. Skytta N. 9. Bammou Y.
Substitutes
17. Akpom Ch. 15. Bouaddi A. 16. Chevalier L. (G) 13. Cossier I. 19. Gomes A. 20. Gomes A. 12. Lachaab Y. 14. Mandi A. 18. Mbappe E.	20. Bardeli E. 18. Courtet G. 16. Kone I. (G) 12. Pitu A. 15. Rivera M. 13. Senneville C. 19. Tejan K. 14. Yassine G. 17. Youssouf B.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diop M. ↓, Bardeli E. ↑,
59', Alexsandro 🟨,
59', Sangante O. 🟨,
60', Essimi M. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
60', Bammou Y. ↓, Courtet G. ↑,
60', Al Saad M. ↓, Yassine G. ↑,
63', Sahraoui O. ↓, Mbappe E. ↑,
63', Cabella R. ↓, Akpom Ch. ↑,
65', Haraldsson H. 🟨,
71', Mukau N. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
76', Skytta N. ↓, Senneville C. ↑,
76', Senneville C. 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Gomes A. ⚽, David J. (A),
90+1', David J. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Tejan K. ⚽, Abner F. (A),
90+7', Tejan K. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Mbappe E. (Pen),
1, Courtet G. (Pen),
2, Bakker M. (Pen),
2, Bardeli E. (Pen),
3, Gomes A. (Pen),
3, Sangante O. (Pen),
4, Alexsandro (Pen),
4, Georgen A. (Pen),
5, Haraldsson H. (Pen),
5, Sekongo A. (Pen),
6, Akpom Ch. (Pen),
6, Senneville C. (Pen),
7, Andre B. (Pen),
7, Jaouen E. (Pen),

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Lille could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lille is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lille won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Lille won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
01.02.25	Lille - Saint-Étienne	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Lille - Feyenoord	6:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
25.01.25	Strasbourg - Lille	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Liverpool - Lille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.01.25	Lille - Nice	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW
- USL Dunkerque
French Ligue 2
31.01.25	Dunkerque - Martigues	0:1 ✺
27.01.25	Annecy - Dunkerque	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
22.01.25	Haguenau - Dunkerque	1:3 ✺
French Ligue 2
18.01.25	Dunkerque - Lorient	0:1 ✺
10.01.25	Pau - Dunkerque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.07.19	Lille - Dunkerque	2:1
11.11.16	Lille - Dunkerque	Canceled
09.07.16	Lille - Dunkerque	1:0

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