Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium (Yerevan)

Referee: Kolaric P. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Colombia	ESPN 4
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 14
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Claro Sports
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 13, M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 13, Blue Sport 13
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 13
United-kingdom	HBO Max
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4, Inter


	Ararat-Armenia		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	7.00	4.75	1.42
	6.25	4.80	1.46
	6.75	4.50	1.46
	6.97	5.04	1.44
	5.8	4.59	1.51	Watch
	6.80	4.90	1.40
	7.10	4.97	1.45
	6.40	4.80	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.63 ↑ (5.17)	4.79 ↑ (4.11)	1.45 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ararat-Armenia
14.3%

Draw
19.8%

AZ Alkmaar
65.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.5%

23.3%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

22.4%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ararat-Armenia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ararat-Armenia than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ararat Armenia - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.69) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this matchup, AZ is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Ararat-Armenia: Ayongo P. (Off the roster).

Confirmed absences for AZ: Hornkamp J. (Injury) Resink S. (Knee Injury) Smit K. (Injury) Verhulst H. (Off the roster).

Doubtful / questionable for Ararat-Armenia: Banjaqui Z. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for AZ: Clasie J. (Knock).

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	0	0	2	2:7	-5	0

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

AZ Alkmaar: 2.06% Ararat-Armenia: 0.27%

Last Results with these Odds

AZ Alkmaar - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 58.22%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ararat-Armenia
Armenian Premier League
18.10.26	BKMA Yerevan - Ararat-Armenia	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Ararat-Armenia	3:1 ✺
Armenian Premier League
10.10.26	Ararat-Armenia - Alashkert	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Shirak Gyumri - Ararat-Armenia	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Ararat-Armenia - Sparta Prague	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTWL
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.26	Cambuur - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.10.26	AZ Alkmaar - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.10.26	Feyenoord - AZ Alkmaar	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Sunderland - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TWLWL

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