The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Groningen 27.1%
Draw 23.7%
Ajax 49.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
22.8%
21.9%
55.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.7%
20.9%
57.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Groningen that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+8.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
6.2%
18.7%
75%
Groningen - Ajax Predictions
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Groningen will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Ajax will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 53.8% โ 96.2%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
New Consensus by Tipsters:
1X2 - Ajax (1.95) (votes: 89%) โญ Best Value.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) ๐ฅ Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Vaessen E. (G) 14. Schreuders J. 3. Blokzijl T. (C) 5. Rente M. 33. Hateboer H. 8. de Jonge T. 24. Clement P. 17. van der Werff D. 26. van Bergen T. 11. Ondrejka J. 9. Willumsson B.
1. ter Stegen M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 30. Bouwman A. 36. Janse D. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 4. Amrabat S. 24. Mokio J. 8. Brandt J. 38. Marcos Leonardo 10. Gloukh O.
Substitutes
30. Boevink P. (G) 4. Csinger M. 44. Dillema J. 20. Eggens N. 7. Hernes T. 18. Land T. 34. Metu R. 42. Mosselaar J. 16. Nordin A. 2. Prins W. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 19. Zawada O.
67. Abdalla M. 99. Arokodare T. 15. Baas Y. 28. Bissouma Y. 43. Bounida R. 6. Kehrer T. 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 51. Setford C. (G) 21. Torrents J. 11. Tsygankov V.
Coaches
Lukkien D.
Michel
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Klaassen D. (Penalty Awarded),
27', 0 - 1, Brandt J. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Bouwman A. ⚽,
40', van Bergen T. 🟨,
45+2', Janse D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
49', 1 - 2, Willumsson B. ⚽,
60', 1 - 3, Brandt J. ⚽, Wijndal O. (A),
67', Ondrejka J. ↓, Csinger M. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Mokio J. ⚽,
75', 1 - 5, Mokio J. ⚽, Klaassen D. (A),
76', Brandt J. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
82', Klaassen D. ↓, Bissouma Y. ↑,
82', Gloukh O. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
83', Willumsson B. ↓, Land T. ↑,
83', van der Werff D. ↓, Zawada O. ↑,
83', Rente M. ↓, Prins W. ↑,
83', de Jonge T. ↓, Eggens N. ↑,
83', 2 - 5, van Bergen T. ⚽,
90', van Bergen T. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Rosa L. 🟨,
Preview
One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs and 5th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 1.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Groningen could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Ajax is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Confirmed absences for Groningen: Hernes T.
(Injury)
Jeng M.
(Leg Injury)
Mercera T.
(Injury)
van der Laan E.
(Injury).
Confirmed absences for Ajax: Berghuis S.
(Injury)
Blind D.
(Back Injury)
Caio Henrique
(Thigh Injury)
Dolberg K.
(Knee Injury)
Gaaei A.
(Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Groningen has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:45 (averaging 0.9:2.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Groningen against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 14:16 goals (averaging 1.4:1.6 per game).
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Vaessen E. (G) 
Schreuders J. 
Rente M. 
Ondrejka J. 
Willumsson B. 
Rosa L. 
Amrabat S. 
Mokio J. 
Gloukh O. 
Csinger M. 
Hernes T. 
Stubljar L. (G) 
Zawada O. 
Arokodare T. 
Bissouma Y. 
Paes M. (G) 
Setford C. (G) 
Torrents J. 
Tsygankov V. 
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