Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 26

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Euroborg (Groningen)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Ecuador	ESPN 4
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 1
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	Eurosport
Indonesia	Vidio
Italy	Como TV
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	Gol Play, GolStadium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Groningen		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.7	2.35	Watch
	2.8	3.6	2.35
	2.85	3.7	2.32
	2.9	3.74	2.37
	2.93	3.77	2.24	Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.25
	3.01	3.78	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (2.98)	3.67 ↑ (3.42)	2.31 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Groningen
33.1%

Draw
25.9%

Ajax
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

27.3%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

25.7%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	13%	60.9%

Groningen - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Groningen will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Ajax will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 41% – 80.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Groningen (votes: 1 - 20%). Ajax (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vaessen E. (G) 16. Mercera T. 3. Blokzijl T. 4. Janse D. 43. Peersman M. (C) 17. van der Werff D. 7. Hernes T. 18. Land T. 14. Schreuders J. 9. Willumsson B. 26. van Bergen T.	26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 24. Mokio J. 48. Steur S. 23. Berghuis S. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
22. Bouland S. 8. de Jonge T. 44. Dillema J. 21. Jurjus H. (G) 48. Kelder R. 27. Mendes R. 2. Prins W. 5. Rente M. 20. Seuntjens M. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 15. van der Laan E. 19. Zawada O.	67. Abdalla M. 43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 19. Konadu D. 52. Reverson P. (G) 2. Rosa L. 32. Tomiyasu T.
Coaches
Lukkien D.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, van Bergen T. ⚽, Janse D. (A),
30', 1 - 1, Klaassen D. ⚽, Gaaei A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Vaessen E. ↓, Jurjus H. ↑,
46', Willumsson B. ↓, Zawada O. ↑,
46', Mercera T. ↓, Rente M. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Zawada O. ⚽, Peersman M. (A),
69', Klaassen D. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
69', Berghuis S. ↓, Dolberg K. ↑,
69', Hernes T. ↓, de Jonge T. ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Zawada O. ⚽, Blokzijl T. (A),
76', Zawada O. ↓, Mendes R. ↑,
82', Peersman M. ↓, Prins W. ↑,
83', Sutalo J. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
88', Mokio J. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
88', Steur S. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
88', Wijndal O. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
90+4', Weghorst W. 🟨,
90+5', Blokzijl T. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 0.

Groningen has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ajax has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Groningen: Hoekstra M. (Injury) Resink S. (Knee Injury) Taha Y. (Yellow Cards) de Jonge T. (Injury) van der Laan E. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Itakura K. (Back Injury) Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Regeer Y. (Yellow Cards) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Ajax will win today's game, with odds of 2.4.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Groningen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 15:46. (average 0.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Groningen won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15:13	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.26	Volendam - Groningen	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Twente - Groningen	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Groningen - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Groningen - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Groningen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.26	Zwolle - Ajax	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Ajax - Fortuna Sittard	4:1 ✺
08.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
02.12.25	Ajax - Groningen	2:0
14.05.25	Groningen - Ajax	2:2
06.10.24	Ajax - Groningen	3:1
16.05.23	Groningen - Ajax	2:3
14.08.22	Ajax - Groningen	6:1
02.04.22	Groningen - Ajax	1:3
25.09.21	Ajax - Groningen	3:0

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