Match Info

Date: 28 August 2022, Sunday

Location: Cambuur Stadion (Leeuwarden)

Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Cambuur		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5.25	4	1.61	Watch
	5	4.2	1.62
	5.3	4.25	1.6
	5	4.1	1.61
	5.24	4.34	1.64
	5.25	3.9	1.6	Watch
	4.9	4.25	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.13 ↑ (4.12)	4.15 ↑ (3.73)	1.61 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambuur
18.4%

Draw
22.8%

AZ Alkmaar
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

25%

52.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

25%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambuur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambuur than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.2%	7.1%	66.7%

Cambuur - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Cambuur will win (votes: 11 - 26.2%). AZ will win (votes: 28 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 52.4% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Cambuur has the most likely position - 15 (8.74%), has project points - 38, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (24%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

AZ has the most likely position - 4 (19%), has project points - 60, has currently - 6, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of qualify for ucl (13%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has quality 51, importance 31, match rating 41. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cambuur won 0.

Recent matches Cambuur is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

AZ in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Cambuur could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AZ is a favorite.

There will not play in Cambuur: Gullit M. (Knee Injury) van der Water S. (Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Karlsson J. (Injury) Vanheusden Z. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Cambuur won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 5-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Cambuur won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeuwarden Cambuur
Dutch Eredivisie
20.08.22	Fortuna Sittard - Cambuur	1:4 ✺
13.08.22	Utrecht - Cambuur	0:0 ✺
06.08.22	Cambuur - Excelsior	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.22	Zwolle - Cambuur	3:1 ✺
16.07.22	Cambuur - Telstar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTLLW
- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.08.22	Gil Vicente - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
18.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Gil Vicente	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Dundee United	7:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.08.22	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
22.01.22	AZ Alkmaar - Cambuur	0:0
03.10.21	Cambuur - AZ Alkmaar	1:3
Club Friendly
29.07.17	AZ Alkmaar - Cambuur	4:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
02.03.17	AZ Alkmaar - Cambuur	1:0 penalties
Dutch Eredivisie
27.01.16	AZ Alkmaar - Cambuur	3:1
17.10.15	Cambuur - AZ Alkmaar	1:1
21.03.15	AZ Alkmaar - Cambuur	2:1

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