Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 10

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	16:45	SuperSport 5
Argentina	12:45	Disney+
Belgium	16:45	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Brazil	12:45	Disney+
Canada	11:45	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	12:45	Disney+
Colombia	10:45	Disney+
Croatia	16:45	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 6
Czech Republic	16:45	Oneplay
France	16:45	DAZN France
Germany	16:45	Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	17:45	Nova Sports 2
Indonesia	22:45	Kompas TV, Vidio
Israel	17:45	Sport 3
Italy	16:45	Como TV
Japan	00:45	U-NEXT
Kenya	18:45	Gotv
Mexico	09:45	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	16:45	ESPN 3, ESPN
Nigeria	16:45	SupeSport ESPN 2
North Macedonia	16:45	MaxTV GO
Peru	10:45	Disney+
Poland	16:45	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	15:45	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	17:45	Prima Sport PPV 2
Serbia	16:45	Arena Sport 3
Slovenia	16:45	Sport TV3
South Africa	17:45	SupeSport ESPN 2
Spain	16:45	DAZN Espana
Suriname	12:45	SCCN
Switzerland	16:45	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	12:45	Disney+
Usa	11:45	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	11:45	Disney+
International	15:45	OneFootball TV


	Sparta Rotterdam		Ajax

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.50	1.53	Watch
	5.00	4.80	1.55
	5.60	4.70	1.47
	5.89	5.08	1.55
	5.9	5.2	1.44	Watch
	5.80	5.00	1.47
	5.26	4.85	1.55	Watch
	5.20	4.90	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.49 ↓ (5.6)	4.88 ↓ (4.96)	1.51 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Rotterdam
17.4%

Draw
19.5%

Ajax
63.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

16.8%

19%

64.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.3%

18.4%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Ajax (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brouwer M. (G) 2. Martes L. 3. Young M. 6. Verschuren N. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Kuipers B. 7. van Cruijsen R. 8. Toornstra J. 10. Hatenboer C. 11. Babadi I. 9. Zonneveld M.	1. ter Stegen M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 6. Kehrer T. 36. Janse D. 15. Baas Y. (C) 24. Mokio J. 4. Amrabat S. 8. Brandt J. 11. Tsygankov V. 99. Arokodare T. 68. Ouazane A.
Substitutes
16. Baas J. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 22. Ideho J. 19. Kostic A. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 14. Quintero T. 12. Reith B. 18. Roaldsoy A. 21. Terho C. 17. van Bergen M. 15. Vianello G.	67. Abdalla M. 28. Bissouma Y. 17. Blind D. 43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 10. Gloukh O. 22. Heerkens J. (G) 18. Klaassen D. 38. Marcos Leonardo 26. Paes M. (G) 21. Torrents J. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Meijer R.	Michel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Ouazane A. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Toornstra J. ⚽, Babadi I. (A),
45+1', 1 - 2, Arokodare T. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tsygankov V. ↓, Klaassen D. ↑,
56', Toornstra J. ↓, van Bergen M. ↑,
61', Ouazane A. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
61', Mokio J. ↓, Bissouma Y. ↑,
64', Brandt J. 🟨,
70', van Cruijsen R. ↓, Kostic A. ↑,
79', Baas Y. ↓, Wijndal O. ↑,
84', Young M. ↓, Quintero T. ↑,
84', Martins Indi B. ↓, Terho C. ↑,
89', Babadi I. 🟨,
90+3', Rosa L. 🟨,
90+3', Janse D. ↓, Blind D. ↑,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 14th and 4th in the Promotion - Eredivisie Conference League - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 0.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Sparta Rotterdam could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Ajax holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Sparta Rotterdam: Mito S. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Ajax: Adingra S. (Lacking Match Fitness) Berghuis S. (Injury) Blind D. (Back Injury) Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) Dolberg K. (Knee Injury) Edvardsen O. (Inactive) Gaaei A. (Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Sparta Rotterdam has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 15 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:44 (averaging 0.8:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sparta Rotterdam against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with 9:22 goals (averaging 1:2.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	29:13	16	21
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	17:24	-7	9

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Ajax: 5.42% Sparta Rotterdam: 0.14%

Last Results with these Odds

Ajax - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 64.15%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.10.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Willem II	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Sparta Rotterdam	3:3 ✺
19.09.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Heerenveen	0:4 ✺
13.09.26	PSV Eindhoven - Sparta Rotterdam	4:1 ✺
04.09.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Zwolle	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLLT
- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.10.26	Ajax - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.26	Groningen - Ajax	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Hajduk Split - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.10.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
14.03.26	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0
04.10.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	3:3
27.04.25	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
22.12.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	0:2
17.03.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	2:2
09.12.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1
19.02.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0

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