Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam)

Referee: Nijhuis B. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World, Sportsnet World Now
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 7
France	DAZN France
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	ESPN Extra
New-zealand	ESPN
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Romania	Orange TV Go
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Sparta Rotterdam		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.2	1.73	Watch
	4.33	4	1.72
	4.45	4.15	1.7
	4.59	4.3	1.72
	4.58	3.91	1.71	Watch
	4.27	4.12	1.77	Watch
	4.2	4.1	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.37 ↓ (4.6)	4.11 ↑ (3.85)	1.73 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Rotterdam
21.8%

Draw
23.2%

Ajax
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

24.5%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

24.2%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	18.2%	81.8%

Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Ajax (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Ajax (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 14 - 82.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Sambo S. 3. Young M. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Quintero T. 6. Baas J. 8. Kitolano J. 7. van Bergen M. 10. Clement P. 11. Oufkir A. 9. Lauritsen T.	1. Jaros V. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 24. Mokio J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 28. Fitz-Jim K. 8. Taylor K. 7. Moro R. 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
12. Bakari S. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 22. de Guzman J. 21. Duijvestijn L. 15. Kleijn M. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 17. Ltaief S. 16. Santos A. 19. Thorisson N. 18. Toornstra J. 14. van Aanholt P. 13. Velthuis T.	41. Alders G. 23. Berghuis S. 43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 17. Edvardsen O. 3. Gaaei A. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 19. Konadu D. 16. McConnell J. 22. Pasveer R. (G)
Coaches
Steijn M.	Heitinga J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Weghorst W. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
45', Baas J. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Lauritsen T. (Pen),
45+5', Fitz-Jim K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Rosa L. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
52', 2 - 1, van Bergen M. ⚽, Sambo S. (A),
55', 3 - 1, Kitolano J. ⚽,
60', Klaassen D. ↓, Berghuis S. ↑,
60', Moro R. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
66', Oufkir A. ↓, Duijvestijn L. ↑,
73', 3 - 2, Weghorst W. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
74', Godts M. 🟨,
75', Heitinga J. 🟨,
75', Kitolano J. ↓, Toornstra J. ↑,
77', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, McConnell J. ↑,
84', Sambo S. ↓, Bakari S. ↑,
84', van Bergen M. ↓, Thorisson N. ↑,
87', Mokio J. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 3, Gloukh O. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Sparta Rotterdam may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ajax is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: Mito S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) McConnell J. (Health problems) Weghorst W. (Knock) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Regeer Y. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 12:37. (average 0.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sparta Rotterdam won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:19. (average 0.8:2.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Heracles Almelo - Sparta Rotterdam	3:0 ✺
19.09.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Twente	1:5 ✺
14.09.25	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Feyenoord	0:4 ✺
23.08.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Sparta Rotterdam	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWLW
- Ajax Amsterdam
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Ajax - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.25	Ajax - Zwolle	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
27.04.25	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
22.12.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	0:2
17.03.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	2:2
09.12.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1
19.02.23	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0
21.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Ajax	0:1
09.04.22	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1

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