Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 6, SuperSport Football Plus
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 4
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 7, Play Sports 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	16:00	Disney+
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 10
Germany	21:00	RTL+, WOW
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Israel	22:00	Sport 3
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Arena
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Football Plus
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 8
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 11, M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Thailand	02:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	HBO Max, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+
Vietnam	02:00	On Golf


	Ajax		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.80	3.30
	1.95	3.75	3.10
	1.97	3.85	3.45
	2.05	4.12	3.35
	2.13	3.88	3.13	Watch
	1.99	4.05	3.25
	2.09	3.85	3.18
	2.00	3.90	3.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.57)	3.9 ↑ (3.57)	3.26 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
46.7%

Draw
24.2%

Atalanta
29%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

25.9%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

25.7%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajax's performance.

Atalanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atalanta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atalanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.4%	14.3%	33.3%

Ajax - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 11 - 52.4%). Atalanta will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 31% – 73.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Ajax (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Ajax (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.44) (votes: 93%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. ter Stegen M. (G) 2. Rosa L. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 24. Mokio J. 4. Amrabat S. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 8. Brandt J. 10. Gloukh O. 38. Marcos Leonardo	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 16. Bellanova R. 31. Kristensen T. 40. Obric R. 77. Zappacosta D. 70. Gaetano G. 13. Ederson (C) 99. Elmas E. 17. De Ketelaere C. 59. Zalewski N. 9. Scamacca G.
Substitutes
67. Abdalla M. 99. Arokodare T. 43. Bounida R. 22. Heerkens J. (G) 36. Janse D. 6. Kehrer T. 68. Ouazane A. 26. Paes M. (G) 49. Pugno D. 21. Torrents J. 11. Tsygankov V.	47. Bernasconi L. 48. Bonanomi A. 41. Idele J. 55. Isoa I. 90. Krstovic N. 46. Levak S. 8. Pasalic M. 11. Rowe J. 10. Samardzic L. 51. Sonzogni M. (G) 57. Sportiello M. (G)
Coaches
Michel	Sarri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Amrabat S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
62', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
62', Klaassen D. ↓, Tsygankov V. ↑,
62', Gloukh O. ↓, Ouazane A. ↑,
66', Marcos Leonardo ↓, Arokodare T. ↑,
68', Samardzic L. 🟨,
72', Scamacca G. ↓, Krstovic N. ↑,
80', Gaetano G. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
80', Elmas E. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
86', Zalewski N. 🟨,
87', 1 - 0, Arokodare T. ⚽, Baas Y. (A),
90+1', Brandt J. ↓, Janse D. ↑,
90+2', ter Stegen M. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 0, Ouazane A. ⚽, Arokodare T. (A),

Preview

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ajax is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Ajax: Bissouma Y. (Off the roster) Blind D. (Back Injury) Dolberg K. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Atalanta: Hien I. (Muscle Injury) Kessie F. (Calf Injury) Kolasinac S. (Thigh Injury) Kossounou O. (Thigh Injury) Pompei T. (Off the roster) Raspadori G. (Thigh Injury) Scalvini G. (Thigh Injury) Sulemana K. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Ajax: Adingra S. (Lacking Match Fitness) Berghuis S. (Injury) Caio Henrique (Thigh Injury) Gaaei A. (Injury).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Ajax has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ajax against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:1 goals.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	3:2	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Atalanta: 10.72% Ajax: 6.18%

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.08%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
18.10.26	Groningen - Ajax	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Hajduk Split - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.10.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
15.09.26	Ajax - Willem II	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLTTW
- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
18.10.26	Milan - Atalanta	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Atalanta - Paphos	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.10.26	Atalanta - Venezia	3:1 ✺
20.09.26	Juventus - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Atalanta - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
09.12.20	Ajax - Atalanta	0:1
27.10.20	Atalanta - Ajax	2:2

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