Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 12 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Kruzliak I. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, Flow Eventos
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	Play Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Sport 3
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	Canal+ Live 3
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3, TVM Sport+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Fox Sports
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Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
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Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 3
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1, StarHub TV+
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Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Prima+ app


	Ajax		Lazio

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.6	3.1
	2.25	3.4	3.1
	2.22	3.55	3.15
	2.27	3.6	3.24
	2.2	3.65	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3.1
	2.27	3.77	3.24
	2.25	3.6	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.15)	3.58 ↑ (3.25)	3.15 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Network on TV: UniMás

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
42.9%

Draw
26.7%

Lazio
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Lazio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lazio than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.1%	40%	28.9%

Ajax - Lazio Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 13 - 31.7%). Lazio will win (votes: 11 - 26.8%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 41.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.4% – 56.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rensch D. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 4. Hato J. 23. Berghuis S. 6. Henderson J. (C) 8. Taylor K. 20. Traore B. 9. Brobbey B. 11. Godts M.	35. Mandas C. (G) 29. Lazzari M. 4. Patric (C) 2. Gigot S. 3. Pellegrini Lu. 6. Rovella N. 7. Dele-Bashiru F. 20. Tchaouna L. 19. Dia B. 9. Pedro 11. Castellanos T.
Substitutes
10. Akpom Ch. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 12. Gorter J. (G) 38. Hlynsson K. 36. Janse D. 13. Kaplan A. 40. Ramaj D. (G) 29. Rasmussen C. 24. Rugani D. 21. van den Boomen B. 25. Weghorst W.	55. Furlanetto A. (G) 34. Gila M. 8. Guendouzi M. 18. Isaksen G. 77. Marusic A. 14. Noslin T. 94. Provedel I. (G) 30. Tavares N. 10. Zaccagni M.
Coaches
Farioli F.	Baroni M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Tchaouna L. ⚽, Pedro (A),
38', Hato J. 🟨,
45+1', Brobbey B. 🟨,
45+2', Rovella N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Dia B. ↓, Zaccagni M. ↑,
46', Lazzari M. ↓, Marusic A. ↑,
46', Pellegrini Lu. 🟨,
47', 1 - 1, Traore B. ⚽, Taylor K. (A),
52', 1 - 2, Dele-Bashiru F. ⚽, Zaccagni M. (A),
57', Godts M. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
69', Pellegrini Lu. ↓, Tavares N. ↑,
72', Brobbey B. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
72', Berghuis S. ↓, Akpom Ch. ↑,
72', Patric ↓, Gila M. ↑,
77', 1 - 3, Pedro ⚽, Tchaouna L. (A),
78', Taylor K. ↓, Rasmussen C. ↑,
78', Rensch D. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
82', Gigot S. 🟨,
82', Weghorst W. 🟨,
87', Pedro ↓, Guendouzi M. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Ajax is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lazio is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lazio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Ajax: Wijndal O. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Lazio: Vecino M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Avila G. (Knee Injury) Mannsverk S. (Ankle Injury) Rijkhoff J. (Knee Injury) Tahirovic B. (Concussion) van Axel Dongen A. (Knock)

There are questionable in Lazio: Pellegrini Lu. (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
08.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1 ✺
04.12.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:2 ✺
01.12.24	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Real Sociedad - Ajax	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.11.24	Ajax - Zwolle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTWLW
- SS Lazio
Italian Serie A
08.12.24	Napoli - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
05.12.24	Lazio - Napoli	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.12.24	Parma - Lazio	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Lazio - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Lazio - Bologna	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWLTW

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