Match Info

Eredivisie - Conference League - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Kras Stadion (Volendam)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ajax		Utrecht

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.6	3.3	Watch
	1.73	4.2	4.1
	2.08	3.7	3.35
	2.1	3.85	3.47
	2.01	3.57	3.63	Watch
	2	3.5	3.3
	2.03	3.81	3.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.7)	3.75 ↓ (4.27)	3.52 ↓ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
47.6%

Draw
25.4%

Utrecht
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

22%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

23.8%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajax's form might have worsened.

Utrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Utrecht, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	5.3%	10.5%

Ajax - Utrecht Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 30. Bouwman A. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 6. Regeer Y. 24. Mokio J. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 23. Berghuis S. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.	1. Barkas V. (G) 23. Vesterlund N. 3. van der Hoorn M. (C) 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 16. El Karouani S. 2. Horemans S. 21. Zechiel G. 10. Cathline Y. 20. de Wit D. 11. Karlsson J. 18. Stepanov A.
Substitutes
43. Bounida R. 7. Carrizo M. 10. Gloukh O. 4. Itakura K. 19. Konadu D. 50. Muzungu M. 52. Reverson P. (G) 48. Steur S. 32. Tomiyasu T. 45. van de Pavert R. 58. van der Velde V. (G) 25. Weghorst W.	5. Adiele E. 77. Alarcon A. 15. Blake A. 25. Brouwer M. (G) 43. El Arguioui R. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 91. Haller S. 57. Kloosterboer P. 9. Min D. 53. Viereck N. 24. Viergever N.
Coaches
Garcia O.	Jans R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Mokio J. ↓, Steur S. ↑,
60', Stepanov A. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
61', Eerdhuijzen M. ↓, Viergever N. ↑,
70', Karlsson J. ↓, Blake A. ↑,
73', Horemans S. ↓, El Arguioui R. ↑,
78', Dolberg K. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
79', Berghuis S. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
85', Regeer Y. ↓, Itakura K. ↑,
90+5', El Arguioui R. 🟨,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
95', Baas Y. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
96', 1 - 0, Klaassen D. ⚽, Tomiyasu T. (A),
98', Cathline Y. ↓, Alarcon A. ↑,
106', 1 - 1, Zechiel G. ⚽,
107', Weghorst W. 🟨,
120', Klaassen D. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Haller S. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Klaassen D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, El Arguioui R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Weghorst W. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Zechiel G. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Godts M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Blake A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Gaaei A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, El Karouani S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 1.

In recent matches, Ajax has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Utrecht is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Ajax is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ajax: Edvardsen O. (Inactive) Fitz-Jim K. (Shoulder Injury) Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Utrecht: Agougil O. (Injury) Demircan E. (Inactive) Didden M. (Inactive) Jensen V. (Knee Injury) Rodriguez M. (Knee Injury) van Ommeren J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Itakura K. (Inactive) Klaassen D. (Injury) Steur S. (Injury) Sutalo J. (Injury) Wijndal O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Utrecht: Engwanda A. (Injury) Min D. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 42:26. (average 2.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:13. (average 2.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
21.05.26	Ajax - Groningen	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Ajax - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ajax - PSV Eindhoven	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WTLTW
- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
21.05.26	Utrecht - Heerenveen	3:2 ✺
17.05.26	Utrecht - Fortuna Sittard	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Ajax - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
10.05.26	Ajax - Utrecht	1:2
09.11.25	Utrecht - Ajax	2:1
20.04.25	Utrecht - Ajax	4:0
04.12.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:2
03.03.24	Ajax - Utrecht	2:0
22.10.23	Utrecht - Ajax	4:3
21.05.23	Ajax - Utrecht	3:1

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