Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 16

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, SupeSport ESPN 1, ZAP
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Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
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Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
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Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Al-Nassr Riyadh		Al-Shabab Riyadh

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.33	6.25
	1.39	4.95	6.3
	1.32	5.63	7.75
	1.4	4.6	5.5
	1.41	5.2	7.89
	1.36	5.33	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.21)	5.01 ↓ (6.92)	6.73 ↓ (9.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Nassr Riyadh
67.6%

Draw
18.6%

Al-Shabab Riyadh
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77.1%

13.5%

9.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Nassr Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Nassr Riyadh's form might have worsened.

Al-Shabab Riyadh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Al Nassr Riyadh - Al Shabab Riyadh Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Nassr (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Nassr Riyadh will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bento (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 3. Simakan M. 26. Martinez I. 12. Boushal N. 80. Wesley 17. Al Khaibari A. 20. Angelo 21. Coman K. 79. Joao Felix 7. Ronaldo C. (C)	43. Marcelo Grohe (G) 17. Al Thani M. 8. Brownhill J. 4. Hoedt W. 31. Balobaid S. 22. Al Hammami H. 29. Adli Y. 14. Sierro V. 10. Carrasco Y. (C) 13. Carlos Junior 7. Hernandez U.
Substitutes
61. Al Buainain M. (G) 19. Al Hassan A. 83. Al Najdi S. 96. Al Nasser S. 4. Al Sharari N. 77. Camara H. 29. Ghareeb A. 16. Maran M. 23. Yahya A.	19. Abdullah M. 34. Al Anzi S. 23. Al Awardi A. (G) 91. Al Othman A. 21. Al Saadi N. 2. Al Shwirekh M. 16. Al Sibyani H. K. A. 6. Al Subiani F. 5. Makki A.
Coaches
Jesus J.	Alguacil I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Balobaid S. (Own goal),
8', 2 - 0, Coman K. ⚽, Wesley (A),
31', 2 - 1, Simakan M. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 2 - 2, Carlos Junior ⚽, Carrasco Y. (A),
60', Coman K. 🟨,
61', Sierro V. 🟨,
65', Wesley ↓, Ghareeb A. ↑,
65', Boushal N. ↓, Al Nasser S. ↑,
67', Sierro V. 🟨,
72', Al Hammami H. ↓, Al Subiani F. ↑,
76', 3 - 2, Ghareeb A. ⚽,
83', Al Thani M. ↓, Al Othman A. ↑,
83', Adli Y. ↓, Al Saadi N. ↑,
84', Hernandez U. ↓, Makki A. ↑,
84', Carlos Junior ↓, Al Shwirekh M. ↑,
90+1', Angelo ↓, Al Hassan A. ↑,
90+4', Al Ghannam S. 🟨,
90+5', Brownhill J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Nassr won 4.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Al-Nassr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Al-Nassr is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Nassr won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Nassr won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Al Nassr	8	6	1	1	19:7	12	19
14	Al Shabab	7	0	4	3	6:11	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Al-Nassr Riyadh - the odds 1.21 are the expected chance of winning is 77.1%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
12.01.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	3:1 ✺
08.01.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Qadisiya	1:2 ✺
02.01.26	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Nassr Riyadh	3:2 ✺
30.12.25	Al-Ettifaq Dammam - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Akhdoud	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTW
- Al-Shabab Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
14.01.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Neom	3:2 ✺
09.01.26	Al-Taawoun - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:0 ✺
03.01.26	Al Fateh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:0 ✺
31.12.25	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Qadisiya	2:3 ✺
27.12.25	Al-Ittihad Jeddah - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
07.03.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:2
18.10.24	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:2
25.02.24	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:3
Saudi King Cup
11.12.23	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:5
Saudi Professional League
29.08.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	4:0
Arab Club Championship Cup
28.07.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	0:0
Saudi Professional League
23.05.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	3:2

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