Match Info

NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA: CONCACAF Champions Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto (Alajuela)

Referee: Szpala L. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Mexico	Tubi TV
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Puerto-rico	Fox Sports 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Foxsports.com, Tubi TV, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Alajuelense		UNAM

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.7
	2.43	3.15	2.85
	2.54	3.34	2.88
	2.45	3.18	2.92	Watch
	2.45	3	2.75
	2.61	3.5	2.77	Watch
	2.43	3.15	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (3.13)	3.24 ↓ (3.43)	2.82 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alajuelense
37.6%

Draw
29%

UNAM
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26.9%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

26.3%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alajuelense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alajuelense's performance.

UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UNAM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alajuelense than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alajuelense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UNAM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Alajuelense - UNAM Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alajuelense will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). UNAM will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Ortega Olivera W. J. (G) 13. Gamboa A. 24. Salazar A. 25. van der Putten S. 26. Pinar F. 5. Borges C. (C) 8. Angulo L. 11. Campos D. 14. Bran Flores A. J. 33. Lucumi J. 19. Toril A.	1. Padilla A. (G) 2. Bennevendo P. 4. Magallan L. (C) 8. Caicedo J. 13. Monroy P. 22. Ergas R. 27. Quispe Cordova P. A. 28. Carrasquilla A. 9. Martinez G. 23. Pussetto I. 29. Funes Mori R.
Substitutes
97. Anderson Canhoto 12. Campbell J. 17. Chacon D. 31. Demetrius T. 2. Martinez C. 22. Matarrita R. 1. Mora B. (G) 28. Navarro J. 16. Oviedo B. 35. Parkins R. 10. Suarez A. 4. Villalobos Alfaro G.	19. Avila A. 51. Azuaje A. 5. Duarte R. 50. Flores J. 35. Lara P. (G) 42. Rico A. 15. Rivas U. 17. Ruvalcaba J. 10. Suarez L. 20. Trigos S.
Coaches
Guimaraes A.	Juarez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Campos D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Toril A. ↓, Anderson Canhoto ↑,
56', Pussetto I. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
56', Funes Mori R. ↓, Ruvalcaba J. ↑,
69', Avila A. 🟨,
72', Pinar F. ↓, Navarro J. ↑,
72', Campos D. ↓, Campbell J. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Suarez L. ⚽, Ergas R. (A),
74', Quispe Cordova P. A. ↓, Duarte R. ↑,
76', Duarte R. 🟨,
80', Lucumi J. 🟨,
81', Salazar A. ↓, Suarez A. ↑,
81', Lucumi J. ↓, Demetrius T. ↑,
82', Martinez G. ↓, Avila A. ↑,
82', Monroy P. ↓, Azuaje A. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alajuelense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LD Alajuelense
Costa Rican Primera Division
08.03.25	Herediano - Alajuelense	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
04.03.25	UNAM - Alajuelense	2:0 ✺
Costa Rican Primera Division
28.02.25	Alajuelense - Puntarenas FC	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Santos de Guápiles - Alajuelense	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Alajuelense - Guanacasteca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLTTW
- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
07.03.25	Puebla - UNAM	1:3 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
04.03.25	UNAM - Alajuelense	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
01.03.25	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1 ✺
25.02.25	Tijuana - UNAM	4:2 ✺
22.02.25	UNAM - Club América	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
04.03.25	UNAM - Alajuelense	2:0

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