Match Info

RUSSIA: FNL - Round 14

Date: 13 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak (Vladikavkaz)

Referee: Fisenko A. (Rus)


	Alania Vladikavkaz		Baltika Kaliningrad

	1	X	2
	4.21	3.05	2.09
	3.95	3.2	2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3)	3.13 ↓ (3.24)	2.05 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alania Vladikavkaz
23.3%

Draw
30.4%

Baltika Kaliningrad
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

29%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

31.2%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alania Vladikavkaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alania Vladikavkaz's form might have worsened.

Baltika Kaliningrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Baltika Kaliningrad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alania Vladikavkaz than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alania Vladikavkaz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Alania Vladikavkaz - Baltika Kaliningrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alania will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Baltika will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soldatenko R. (G) 5. Bagaev A. 19. Butaev A. 11. Chochiev A. 37. Gagloev T. 8. Khugaev A. 77. Kokoev D. 3. Pliev K. 2. Tataev A. 18. Toboev T. 15. Tsallagov I. (C)	67. Borisko M. (G) 16. Andrade K. (C) 70. Eldarushev A. 4. Gassama N. 99. Lisakovich V. 8. Mendel A. 96. Mokhammad A. 95. Petrov I. 19. Pryakhin S. 13. Terentjev D. 2. Varatynov S.
Substitutes
9. Abdokov N. 70. Daurov R. 91. Dolgov P. 12. Gubiev E. 58. Isik M. 10. Khadartsev B. 27. Makarov S. 22. Moskalenchik I. 76. Nafikov V. 23. Natabashvili G. (G) 6. Tarba Z. 13. Zaseev A.	10. Alex Fernandes 59. Avanesyan T. 57. Begun D. 23. Glushkov N. 3. Kalachev I. 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 7. Malyarov K. 5. Osipov A. 9. Stefanovich I. 1. Svinov I. (G) 22. Titkov N. 21. Zazvonkin I.
Coaches
Gogniev S.	Talalaev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Toboev T. 🟨,
22', Andrade K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Toboev T. ↓, Gubiev E. ↑,
46', Terentjev D. ↓, Osipov A. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Eldarushev A. ⚽,
59', 0 - 2, Pryakhin S. ⚽,
61', Kokoev D. ↓, Nafikov V. ↑,
61', Chochiev A. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
64', Tsallagov I. ↓, Makarov S. ↑,
64', Khugaev A. ↓, Tarba Z. ↑,
68', Eldarushev A. ↓, Stefanovich I. ↑,
74', Lisakovich V. ↓, Alex Fernandes ↑,
74', Pryakhin S. ↓, Avanesyan T. ↑,
86', Petrov I. ↓, Malyarov K. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alania won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Baltika will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Alania won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:9 (average 1.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Alania won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:4 (average 2.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alania Vladikavkaz
Russian FNL
06.10.24	Alania Vladikavkaz - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0 ✺
30.09.24	Rotor - Alania Vladikavkaz	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
26.09.24	Amkal Moscow - Alania Vladikavkaz	0:1 ✺
Russian FNL
21.09.24	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Alania Vladikavkaz	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	Alania Vladikavkaz - KAMAZ	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTWTL
- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian FNL
06.10.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	0:0 ✺
29.09.24	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:1 ✺
Russian Cup
25.09.24	Luki-Energiya - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
21.09.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Arsenal Tula	0:0 ✺
16.09.24	Torpedo Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
26.05.23	Alania Vladikavkaz - Baltika Kaliningrad	3:1
06.11.22	Baltika Kaliningrad - Alania Vladikavkaz	2:1
Club Friendly
03.07.22	Baltika Kaliningrad - Alania Vladikavkaz	0:1
Russian FNL
06.04.22	Alania Vladikavkaz - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:3
Club Friendly
13.02.22	Baltika Kaliningrad - Alania Vladikavkaz	0:2
Russian FNL
25.09.21	Baltika Kaliningrad - Alania Vladikavkaz	1:1
02.05.21	Baltika Kaliningrad - Alania Vladikavkaz	2:0

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