Match Info

ENGLAND: FA TROPHY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 14 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Recreation Ground (Aldershot)


	Aldershot Town		Leiston

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	4.3
	1.57	4.57	4.67
	1.5	4	5.25
	1.54	4.4	5.2
	1.58	4.2	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.4)	4.25 ↓ (4.57)	4.76 ↓ (6.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
59.2%

Draw
21.6%

Leiston
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

20.2%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

20.8%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aldershot Town's form might have worsened.

Leiston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aldershot Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiston than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leiston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aldershot Town - Leiston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Aldershot is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leiston is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Aldershot could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Aldershot have a series of home games.

In this match Aldershot is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English National League
10.01.23	Aldershot Town - Dagenham & Redbridge	0:2 ✺
07.01.23	Aldershot Town - Notts County	0:3 ✺
01.01.23	Woking - Aldershot Town	4:1 ✺
26.12.22	Aldershot Town - Woking	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
20.12.22	Aldershot Town - Welling United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- Leiston
English Southern League Central Division
07.01.23	Leiston - Basford United	6:2 ✺
02.01.23	Kings Langley - Leiston	1:1 ✺
26.12.22	Leiston - Needham Market	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
17.12.22	Folkestone Invicta - Leiston	1:2 penalties ✺
English Southern League Central Division
10.12.22	Nuneaton Town - Leiston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWWL

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