Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Atlético		Atlético Grau

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.6	Watch
	2.22	2.88	3.6	Watch
	2.17	2.84	3.99
	2.17	2.8	4.08	Watch
	2.1	2.88	3.7
	2.14	3.05	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.81)	2.91 ↓ (3.22)	3.77 ↓ (4.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Atlético
43.3%

Draw
32%

Atlético Grau
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

28.7%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

27.8%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Atlético's form might have worsened.

Atlético Grau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Atlético, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Grau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Grau will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Prieto D. (G) 21. Perleche E. 2. Suarez R. 4. Villegas J. C. 24. Gordillo A. 10. Diaz G. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 16. Fernandez S. 15. Lupu H. (C) 17. Penilla C. 7. Coronel F.	1. Alvarez P. (C) 4. Rodriguez D. 27. Tapia R. 2. Acevedo L. 3. Tapia I. 22. Neira C. 29. Franco E. 5. Guarderas R. 6. Rodas E. 9. Ruidiaz R. 19. Camargo I.
Substitutes
22. del Castillo J. 37. Delgado J. 8. Flores F. 25. Guzman W. 1. Hermoza E. (G) 6. Lujan J. 23. Munoz A. 20. Perez J. 9. Robaldo V.	16. Ataupillco J. 7. Barreto D. 33. Calderon A. (G) 66. de la Cruz A. 10. de la Cruz P. 11. Delgadillo N. 13. Oncoy F. 24. Ruidiaz Y. 32. Torres S.
Coaches
Urciuoli F.	Ameli G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', Fernandez S. 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Tapia R. ⚽, Neira C. (A),
45+2', Ruidiaz R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Fernandez S. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Lupu H. ⚽, Larios Saavedra G. A. (A),
56', 1 - 2, Camargo I. ⚽,
62', Guarderas R. 🟨,
65', Franco E. ↓, Barreto D. ↑,
65', Neira C. ↓, de la Cruz A. ↑,
65', Diaz G. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
65', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Robaldo V. ↑,
66', Penilla C. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
79', Camargo I. ↓, Torres S. ↑,
90+1', Lupu H. ↓, del Castillo J. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, del Castillo J. ⚽, Perleche E. (A),
90+5', Rodriguez D. ↓, de la Cruz P. ↑,
90+5', Ruidiaz R. ↓, Ruidiaz Y. ↑,
90+6', Torres S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Alianza Atlético could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Atlético won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 2.1:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Grau	11	5	2	4	14:13	1	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
22.03.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Alianza Atlético - Moquegua	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLWT
- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
22.03.26	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
06.03.26	Atlético Grau - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Atlético Grau - Juan Pablo II College	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
02.11.25	Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético	1:1
29.06.25	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	2:1
14.07.24	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	0:0
28.01.24	Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético	1:1
08.10.23	Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético	1:1
27.05.23	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	3:2
09.10.22	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	4:1

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